[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 161959
SWODY1
SPC AC 161957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CST WED FEB 16 2005

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E CHS 40 SW FLO
CAE 45 SSE AND 10 NNE ATL 20 E RMG GSO 40 E CHO ILG 10 ESE NEL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TIDEWATER AREA INTO ERN NC...
AS OF 19Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VWP DATA
INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS FROM NRN CHESAPEAKE BAY
TO JUST E OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO NRN GA. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS HAS
BEEN SLOW TO WARM TODAY AT MANY LOCATIONS OWING TO CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...SOME HEATING HAS OCCURRED FROM THE TIDEWATER
AREA SWWD INTO THE NC PIEDMONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
APPROACHING 8 C/KM. DESPITE RATHER WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THIS HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF POCKETS OF WEAK INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES OF 500 J/KG.


AN ISOLATED TSTM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG FRONT IN NRN GA /ENE
OF RMG/ WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY REMAINING POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING NEWD ALONG FRONT. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUST APPEARS TO BE WITHIN CORRIDOR OF STEEPER LAPSE
RATES FROM THE TIDEWATER AREA INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NC LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

..MEAD.. 02/16/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.