[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 161631
SWODY1
SPC AC 161629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1029 AM CST WED FEB 16 2005

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CRE 30 NNE FLO
25 NNW SOP 30 E DAN 40 NE CHO BWI 10 E ACY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH A
REX BLOCK OVER THE ERN PACIFIC...A SRN AND NRN STREAM CONFLUENCE
OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...AND A NRN STREAM TROUGH FROM HUDSON
BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE NRN STREAM
/NOW LOCATED OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES/ WILL
MOVE OVER THE NRN MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT.  IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS MID LEVEL TROUGH...A SURFACE CYCLONE IN
CENTRAL NY WILL DEVELOP NEWD TOWARD MAINE WHILE A TRAILING COLD
FRONT SWEEPS SEWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS TODAY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
COAST BY TONIGHT.

...ERN NY/PA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DETECTION DATA HAVE SHOWN
ISOLATED/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING FROM NE PA TO CENTRAL
NY.  SOME WEAK CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE BELT OF STRONG
ASCENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL
TROUGH...BUT MINIMAL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL BE TOO MARGINAL TO EXPAND THE OUTLOOK AREA INTO ERN
PA/NY.

...VA/CAROLINAS...
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE 60S AND DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED
INTO THE MID-UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS AND ERN VA. 
STILL...POOR LAPSE RATES IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL TEND TO LIMIT
BUOYANCY THIS AFTERNOON.  WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND SHALLOW
ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER TODAY MAY ALLOW FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS GIVEN THE 30-40 KT WLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE.

..THOMPSON.. 02/16/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.