[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 061607
SWODY1
SPC AC 061606

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1006 AM CST SUN FEB 06 2005

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW PSX 50 N VCT
25 NNE AUS 15 NE FTW 15 SE MKO 30 N FYV SGF 25 SSE TBN 40 NNW POF 20
ESE POF 30 ESE PBF 25 WNW ESF 30 SSE LCH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E DUG 60 NNW SVC
20 WSW ABQ 15 SSE LVS 45 SE CVS 35 ESE HOB 40 WSW MRF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

SERIES OF S/WV TROUGHS ROTATING THRU THE DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH
POSITION WRN U.S.  STRONG IMPULSE NOTED IN WV IMAGERY THIS AM
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WEAKEN NEWD INTO CONFLUENT FLOW OVER GREAT
LAKES. A COUPLE WEAKER IMPULSES UPSTREAM...LOCATED OVER SWRN NM AND
SRN CA WILL ALSO ROTATE E/NEWD IN STRONG SWLY FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS.  MORE VIGOROUS S/WV VICINITY VANCOUVER ISLAND
WILL DROP SEWD INTO OR TONIGHT.

SURFACE LOW TX/OK PANHANDLE WILL MAINTAIN SLY FLOW OF INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR MASS OFF WRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO SRN PLAINS THRU THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY
TO SUPPORT AN INCREASING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ERN TX BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.  CONTINUED NWD TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY AS FAR N AS SRN MO
OVERNIGHT.

WHILE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...THE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES PRECLUDE A
CONCERN FOR A SEVERE THREAT.

COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON HEATING...MDT LAPSE RATES AND PASSAGE OF
WEAK UPPER TROUGHS...SUPPORT MAINTAINING A PRIMARILY DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM AREA SRN HALF OF NM AND FAR SW TX.

WITH THE LACK OF OBSERVED AND FORECASTED INSTABILITY WITH TROUGH
DROPPING SEWD ACROSS PAC NW HAVE DROPPED THE EARLIER THUNDER
FORECAST W OF CASCADES.

..HALES.. 02/06/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.