[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 050536
SWODY1
SPC AC 050535

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM CST FRI FEB 04 2005

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 S GBN 15 NE PHX 35
SW INW 60 NE INW 45 SSW FMN 10 WNW 4SL 25 WSW LVS 50 WSW TCC 40 S
CVS 35 SE HOB 35 ENE FST 25 SE P07.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SWRN STATES...

THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER THE NRN BAJA AREA IS FORECAST
TO FINALLY EJECT NEWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES SATURDAY AS IT BEGINS TO
PHASE WITH SRN EXTENTION OF NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. STEEP LAPSE
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE UPPER
LOW CENTER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY OVER AZ
DURING PEAK HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIMITED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY MARGINAL. SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF AZ AND NM AS COLD CORE OF UPPER LOW LIFTS NEWD DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
 
...SRN PLAINS...

OTHER CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVER W TX WITHIN A DEVELOPING WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME AS THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES DOWNSTREAM
FROM EJECTING UPPER LOW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NEWD INTO PARTS
OF CNTRL TX...N TX AND OK SATURDAY NIGHT. POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND LIMITED RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR MORE THAN 10% COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

..DIAL.. 02/05/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.