[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 011255
SWODY1
SPC AC 011254

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 AM CST TUE FEB 01 2005

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BRO 25 NE MFE 60
WNW MFE ...CONT... 50 SW MRF 10 ESE FST 40 NNW SJT 35 NW SEP 35 WNW
TYR 10 SW SHV 25 SW JAN 35 SSE MEI 50 NW CEW 25 ESE PNS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NW AND N CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL EJECT
NEWD OVER TX BY THIS EVENING AND LA/AR LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER WAVE DIGGING SWD OVER NV/CA.  A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION
IS ONGOING FROM S CENTRAL TO SE TX IN CONJUNCTION WITH A COUPLED
UPPER JET STRUCTURE AND LOW-LEVEL WAA...WHILE MUCAPE AOB 200 J/KG
BASED FROM 850-700 MB IS SUPPORTING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND SPREAD EWD/NEWD FROM TX
AND THE NW GULF EWD/NEWD ACROSS SRN LA/MS/AL.  OTHER MORE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR FARTHER W FROM THE BIG BEND NEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL TX...WHERE VERY WEAK BUOYANCY AND ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED IN
THE MID LEVELS /600-400 MB/.

AT THE SURFACE...A WAVE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE /NEAR OR JUST S OF THE LA COAST / IN RESPONSE TO THE EJECTING
UPPER TROUGH.  HOWEVER...THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE GIVEN THE EFFECTS OF RAINFALL INTO THE EXISTING CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIR MASS INLAND...AND THE DECREASING AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH BY LATER TONIGHT.

..THOMPSON.. 02/01/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.