[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 290506
SWODY1
SPC AC 290504

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 PM CST WED DEC 28 2005

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE CRE 40 WSW ECG
20 NNE SBY 20 NNE NEL 15 WNW BDL 15 SE CON 20 NE PWM 30 SSW BGR 30 N
EPM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL BE EJECTED NEWD INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE
IN THE PERIOD...AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND
MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EWD INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
COUNTRY. SURFACE LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN U.S TROUGH...IS
FORECAST TO OCCLUDE AND WEAKEN OVER PA...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW
DEVELOPS NEAR DELMARVA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD
TODAY AND ALONG THE ME COAST TONIGHT. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE PLAINS
STATES TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM IA SSWWD INTO NWRN AR AND NRN TX BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...EAST COAST...
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/SERN GA ARE
EXPECTED TO MOSTLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY 12Z. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS
FAR ERN NC AND SERN VA. ANY STORMS THAT DO PERSIST AT 12Z SHOULD END
QUICKLY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS RAPIDLY OFFSHORE.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND NEWD ALONG THE ME COAST...
INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET...AHEAD OF NEWD MOVING SURFACE LOW...WILL
RESULT IN STRONG LIFTING OVER WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE. THE LIFTING OF A WARM/MOIST AIR MASS FROM THE
GULF STREAM OVER THE COLDER BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY/CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE DEPTH FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING TO OCCUR WITH
THE CONVECTION. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL END AS SURFACE LOW
PASSES THROUGH A GIVEN AREA..ENDING WARM ADVECTION/LIFT.

...ROCKIES...
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THIS EVENING ACROSS ID
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN ERN WY/NRN CO AT 12Z AND IN ERN
NEB BY 00Z. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NO REAL
INSTABILITY...AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ALONG
LEADING EDGE OF THERMAL TROUGH...WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
STEEPER. HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR MASS AND INSTABILITY SHOULD 
RESULT IN NO MORE THAN VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. 

...PACIFIC NW...
PCPN MINIMUM IS EXPECTED TODAY AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN
BEHIND EXITING UPPER TROUGH. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL ONCE
AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT AS NEXT STRONG PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. APPEARS THAT THE MAIN COOLING
ALOFT/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL NOT MOVE ONSHORE UNTIL AFTER THIS
PERIOD...SO NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED WITH SYSTEM TONIGHT.

..IMY.. 12/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM