[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 282005
SWODY1
SPC AC 282004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CST WED DEC 28 2005

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S
PNS GZH 20 SSE SEM 25 WSW ANB 20 NE GAD 15 NNW RMG 20 E RMG 10 NE
ATL 35 ESE ATL 50 SSE AHN 35 WSW AGS AGS 15 W OGB 30 SSE OGB 10 ENE
SAV SSI GNV 30 WSW OCF 60 NNW PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE GPT 40 W SEM 45
NNE HSV 50 E BWG 45 SE IND 35 ESE LAF 15 SSE SBN 20 SE GRR 15 NNW
FNT 45 NE MTC 40 W ERI 30 S YNG 25 ENE PKB 30 ENE CRW BLF 45 SSW PSK
25 WNW GSO 25 NNW RDU 40 S RIC 45 E ACY ...CONT... 35 NNE DAB 35 SSW
SRQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW HQM 40 NNW SLE
45 S EUG 25 ENE 4BK 25 NNE ACV 35 SSE EKA 55 WSW UKI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S....

...SOUTHEAST...
WIDESPREAD VIGOROUS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ERUPT ACROSS ERN/SERN AL
AND SRN GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS IN THE
FORM OF SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EWD ACROSS THE REST OF SRN GA AND NRN FL THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF SRN SC AFTER DARK.

STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT BENEATH LEFT EXIT REGION OF CYCLONICALLY
CURVED MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK HAS SPURRED RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT
FROM CNTRL AL SEWD ACROSS SWRN GA. THIS ACTIVITY WAS AHEAD OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM MIDDLE TN TO MOBILE BAY. LOW 60S F
DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR...COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...HAVE RESULTED IN MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG FROM THE WRN FL
PNHDL INLAND ACROSS ERN AL AND SWRN GA. LACK OF GREATER INSTABILITY
WAS BEING OFFSET BY STRONG DYNAMICS AND INCREASINGLY INTENSE WLY
SHEAR THROUGH TROPOSPHERE. MESOSCALE ASCENT WAS BEING FURTHER AIDED
ALONG WEDGE-LIKE THERMAL BOUNDARY LEFT IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
CONVECTION WHICH IS NOW MOVING ACROSS NRN SC/SRN NC. CELLS TRACKING
NEAR OR ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...ROUGHLY ALONG A CSG-AGS-CAE LINE...
COULD POSE A GREATER THREAT OF LONG-LIVED MESOCYCLONES AND A TORNADO
OR TWO IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. OTHER SUPERCELL STORMS ACROSS ERN
AL AND WRN GA WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF HAIL AND PERHAPS
LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS GIVEN RELATIVELY RAPID CELL MOTION OF
30-40KT.

EXPECT ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP EAST INTO PORTIONS OF ERN GA AND WRN SC
INTO THE EVENING. AIR MASS ACROSS THESE AREAS IS CURRENTLY WARM BUT
ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE. DIMINISHING DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY AS THE MCS MOVES EAST THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS AND FORCING...A
DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS
BEYOND SUNDOWN.

...APPALACHIANS...
NARROW WARM SECTOR HAS DEVELOPED NWD ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
AND THE WRN FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIANS. STORMS WITHIN PREFRONTAL
SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO TAP THIS WARMER AIR WEST OF THE
APPALACHIAN CREST FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE FORCING OUTRUNS THE
 STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME. UNTIL THIS TIME...A FEW MORE
LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS
SOME HAIL BUT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.

..CARBIN.. 12/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM