[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 141259
SWODY1
SPC AC 141258

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST WED DEC 14 2005

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E
CRP 20 N PSX 50 WSW POE ESF 15 N PIB 30 N CEW 20 WSW PFN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE BRO COT 50 W
AUS ACT TYR 25 NNE SHV 15 SE GLH 20 NNE TUP 25 SSW CHA 55 W CTY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE WRN AND CNTRL GULF
CST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE CNTRL U.S. THIS PERIOD
DOWNSTREAM FROM PERSISTENT W CST RIDGE.  LEAD IMPULSE IN THIS
EVOLUTION...NOW OVER SE MO...WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY ENE AND WEAKEN AS
UPSTREAM NRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE...NOW OVER CO... AMPLIFIES SEWD.  IN
THE SRN STREAM...MID/UPR LEVEL IMPULSE ENTERING FAR W
TX...WELL-DEFINED IN STLT LOOPS AND FAIRLY WELL-DEPICTED IN THE
GFS...SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS SRN/CNTRL TX TODAY BEFORE TURNING NE
ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL GULF CST STATES TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

AT LWR LEVELS...LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS WEAK CYCLOGENESIS BEGINNING
TO OCCUR ALONG CSTL FRONT ALONG THE S TX CST.  THE LOW SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SRN STREAM
IMPULSE...AND SHOULD MOVE NE TO THE LA CST BY THIS EVENING.  FROM
THERE THE WAVE LIKELY WILL CONTINUE E/NE TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE
EARLY THURSDAY...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

...CNTRL TX NE INTO THE LWR MS VLY/CNTRL GULF CST...
RADAR LOOPS SHOW CONVECTION BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM CNTRL MS WSW ACROSS NRN LA INTO S CNTRL TX.  THIS
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE FORMING ALONG DEEP CONFLUENCE/UVV BAND
CONNECTING MO IMPULSE WITH W TX DISTURBANCE...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS TX FEATURE CONTINUES EWD.  CLOUD LAYER SHEAR ALONG THIS
AXIS WILL BE STRONG /40-50 KTS/...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO
PRECLUDE SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY EMBEDDED TSTMS.

FARTHER S...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION/THUNDER EXPECTED TO FORM BY MIDDAY
INVOF DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE CNTRL AND NRN TX GULF CST. 
WHILE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION... SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 500 J PER KG/ SHOULD EXIST TO SUPPORT
SURFACE-BASED STORMS GIVEN QUALITY OF LOW THETA-E PRESENT JUST OFF
THE COAST /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S F WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S/.

APPROACH OF SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL INCREASE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
DEEP SHEAR ACROSS REGION...WITH 50-60 KT DEEP...LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL...WSWLY SHEAR EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND AND PERHAPS HAIL. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM
SURFACE WAVE WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL VEERING...AND MAY YIELD A THREAT
FOR A TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ALONG IMMEDIATE CST NEWD INTO LA THIS
EVENING.

LATER TONIGHT THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD E ALONG THE CNTRL
GULF CST REGION AND INTO LWR MS VLY.  ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND/OR SETTLE S INTO THE GULF AS BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE RETURN LIKELY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIMITED WITH
EWD EXTENT.  A LOW PROBABILISTIC THREAT WILL...HOWEVER...EXTEND E TO
THE WRN FL PANHANDLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..CORFIDI.. 12/14/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM