[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 140602
SWODY1
SPC AC 140600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CST WED DEC 14 2005

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 E
CRP 20 N PSX 50 WSW POE ESF 35 NNE MCB MOB 50 SSW PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE BRO COT 50 W
AUS ACT TYR 25 NNE SHV 15 SE GLH 20 NNE TUP 25 SSW CHA 55 W CTY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM COASTAL TX EWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH/LOW -- CENTERED INITIALLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS -- IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN/EXPAND SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND EWD ACROSS
THE MS VALLEY THIS PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY FEATURE -- NOT
WELL HANDLED BY THE OOZ NAM -- IS EVIDENT OVER THE NRN GULF OF CA
ATTM...AND SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO TX BY AFTERNOON.  WITH LOW-LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AHEAD
OF SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT...THUNDERSTORMS AND A LIMITED SEVERE
THREAT ARE ANTICIPATED.

...COASTAL TX EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER
PARTS OF E TX WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE SE OF COLD FRONT.  THOUGH
EWD ADVECTION OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION SHOULD
LIMIT DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION...CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION INTO THE GULF COAST REGION/LOWER MS VALLEY SHOULD PROVIDE
A MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE /LESS THAN 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/
PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS.

AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND
SMALLER-SCALE FEATURE MOVES ACROSS TX DURING THE DAY...EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  DESPITE LIMITED
INSTABILITY...STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD -- AIDED BY 50 TO 60 KT
WSWLY MID-LEVEL JET -- WILL LIKELY AID IN THE EVOLUTION OF A FEW
STRONGER/SEVERE STORMS.  WITH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL...MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS/LINE SEGMENTS. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK
LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION...SLIGHT BACKING OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE MAY ENHANCE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...SUGGESTING THAT THE THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO
WILL EXIST.

OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...WITH A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT
LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD -- MAINLY INVOF THE GULF
COAST.

..GOSS.. 12/14/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM