[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 080536
SWODY1
SPC AC 080534

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CST WED DEC 07 2005

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE 7R4 40 SSW PIB
35 WNW GZH 25 NNW DHN 20 NE ABY 15 SSW VDI 35 NNE SAV 45 SSE EWN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S HUF 15 SE IND 35
W DAY 15 WSW CMH 15 NW UNI 25 NNE HTS 50 E JKL 15 SE LOZ CKV 20 ENE
PAH 25 ESE MVN 25 S HUF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

DEEP CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NEB/KS...IS FORECAST TO BE
EJECTED ENEWD ACROSS THE MID MS/OHIO VALLEYS...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPS SWD OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. SURFACE TROUGH IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER/MID MS
VALLEY EWD TO NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...LOWER OH VALLEY...
UPPER LOW WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS 110+ KT MID LEVEL WIND
MAX ROTATES TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW...RESULTING IN CYCLOGENESIS
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE OH VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE WELL REMOVED FROM SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...LAPSE RATES NEAR
7C/KM BETWEEN 3-6 KM PLUS THE COMBINATION OF INTENSE FORCING/LOW
LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

...SERN STATES...
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY...AS WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SRN STREAM
MOVE FROM THE WRN GULF NEWD ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP ELY BOUNDARY
WINDS THAT VEER TO WLY WILL RESULT IN STRONG LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGER FORCING LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA AND
WEAK INSTABILITY/WEAK LAPSE RATES/CLOUDS...SHOULD BE DIFFICULT TO
MAINTAIN STRONG UPDRAFTS.

..IMY.. 12/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM