[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 071900
SWODY1
SPC AC 071858

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 PM CST WED DEC 07 2005

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW BRO 25 S CRP
40 SE COT 45 SW BWD DAL 30 ESE PRX 35 WSW ELD 25 SW ESF 25 SSW GPT
PFN 30 ENE AAF 55 ESE AAF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CONFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM AND A BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES
CURVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES HAS SHIFTED INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  A STRONG COUPLED POLAR/SUBTROPICAL JET
STRUCTURE EXTENDS TO THE EAST...ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND MID
ATLANTIC COAST STATES...AND IS TAKING ON INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC
CURVATURE TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED LOW.  AS THIS OCCURS
...BROAD LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
INTO FAVORABLE RIGHT QUADRANT OF JET ENTRANCE REGION IS SUPPORTING
INCREASING PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS FORCING WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

...GULF STATES...
DUE TO RECENT COLD INTRUSIONS...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
VIGOROUS CONVECTION ALREADY APPEARS TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF...EMANATING
FROM MODIFYING/MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP TOWARD LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND POSSIBLY EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS TOWARD
12Z THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...UNTIL SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE/JET STREAK ROTATE OUT OF THE
FOUR CORNERS STATES LATER TONIGHT...AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
CLOSED LOW...LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS EAST
TEXAS. STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS PROGGED TO
BECOME FOCUSED ALONG LOW/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST TEXAS.  NAM/NAM KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT
MOISTENING/STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER
FOR WEAK CAPE /BASED NEAR OR JUST BELOW 700 MB/...AND STRUCTURE
APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS.  ACTIVITY COULD INITIATE
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS PRIOR TO 08/00Z...BEFORE SPREADING
TOWARD THE ARKLATEX REGION THIS EVENING.

..KERR.. 12/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM