[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 021607
SWODY1
SPC AC 021606

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1006 AM CST FRI DEC 02 2005

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW UIL 20 SSE UIL
35 E AST SLE 10 ESE EUG 45 ESE OTH 15 W CEC.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

BROAD TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS WRN U.S. TODAY UNDER A FAST WLY
FLOW REGIME FROM COAST TO COAST. PAC FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM
NWRN WY SWWD TO OFFSHORE SCENTRAL CA COAST.

WITH PRESSURE FALLS LEE OF ROCKIES...RETURN FLOW OFF WRN GULF OF
MEXICO UNDERWAY.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS TX COASTAL AREAS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY
TONIGHT.

THUNDER POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL MUCH OF CONUS THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.  WILL CONTINUE AN AREA OF LOW TOPPED THUNDER IN THE ONSHORE
FLOW PAC NW AS LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP EVEN WITH THE TROUGH
MOVING INLAND.

HAVE REMOVED THE THUNDER FOR THE SRN INTERMOUNTAIN AREA.  WHILE
THERE IS A MOIST WSWLY FLOW AHEAD OF PAC FRONT...LACK OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE OTHER THAN AN
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION INTO LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT ALONG WITH
MOISTURE RETURN GENERATES SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER THE UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS WEAK AND THE
FORECASTED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF LESS THAN 6C/KM PRECLUDES
INTRODUCING THUNDER FOR TONIGHT.

..HALES.. 12/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM