[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 020537
SWODY1
SPC AC 020535

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM CST THU DEC 01 2005

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW UIL 20 SSE UIL
35 E AST SLE 10 ESE EUG 45 ESE OTH 15 W CEC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW MRY 25 SSW SCK
45 ENE SCK 60 ENE MER 20 SW BIH 45 NNW NID 20 SSE NID 20 SE PMD LGB
60 SSW LGB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW INW 30 ESE PRC
40 WSW PRC 25 NNW EED 25 N LAS 40 W SGU BCE 20 NNE U17 15 ESE 4BL 20
NNE FMN 35 ESE FMN 35 WSW 4SL 10 WSW GNT 50 S GUP 35 SSW INW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW MOB 35 ESE MCB
25 NNW BTR 25 E POE 30 WSW IER 10 SW SHV 25 SSE TXK 40 S HOT 10 SSE
LIT 55 SSW JBR 30 SSW DYR 35 WSW BNA 25 WSW CHA 40 ENE ANB 10 NNW
CSG 25 N DHN 15 SSW GZH 35 NW MOB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AS MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THRU
CENTRAL COASTAL CA WILL CONTINUE EWD AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES SEWD
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AIDING IN BROADENING MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WRN
THIRD OF THE U.S. AND KEEPING ZONAL TYPE FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND
ERN U.S.  MODELS SUPPORT SEVERAL MINOR SHORTWAVES WILL BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS FLOW TRACKING ACROSS SRN AREAS OF CA INTO THE SRN
PLATEAU REGION.  SURFACE FEATURES THAT ARE APPARENT IS A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE SWD THRU THE GREAT BASIN WITH A SURFACE LOW THAT
DEVELOPS OVER SERN CO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVES INTO THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE/SWRN OK BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...WRN PAC NW COAST...

SECOND IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING SEWD BY THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT /-32 - -36C/.  EXIT REGION OF 80 KT MID LEVEL JET COMBINED
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE SHALLOW TYPE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR COASTAL AREAS ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAY.

...CENTRAL INTO SRN PARTS OF CA AND THE VALLEYS...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FIRST SHORTWAVE/ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAX NOW JUST EAST OF THE SFO BAY AREA.  JET CIRRUS EXTENDS
WWD TO NEAR 32N 130W WHICH WILL MOVE THRU SRN PARTS OF CA DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD.  MODELS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM AS THE FLOW MOVES SLOWLY SWD WITH THE MAIN
BAND OF WESTERLIES.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE
SHORT WAVE MOVES THRU DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE PERIOD.

...SRN PLATEAU REGION...

MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THIS REGION TOWARDS MID
AFTERNOON.  MODELS DEPICT K-INDICES IN THE LOW/MID 30S SUPPORTING
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  ACTIVITY COULD
DEVELOP OVER SRN AREAS OF UT/SERN CO THEN MOVE SWD LATE IN THE DAY
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.

...PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO MS/AL...

NAM MODEL REALLY ACCENTUATES LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING SWLY LOW
LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KT FROM SERN TX INTO MIDDLE TN AFTER 03/06Z. 
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN TX PANHANDLE
INTO SERN CO AT 06Z.  THIS DEVELOPMENT IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
GFS...ALTHOUGH THE GFS LOW LEVEL FLOW IS WLY INDICATING A MORE DRIER
LOW LEVEL ADVECTION THAN THE NAM.  THUS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THAT ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS THIS AREA IF THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND ASCENT AHEAD OF WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE
EWD ACROSS TX.

..MCCARTHY.. 12/02/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM