[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 200600
SWODY1
SPC AC 200558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT WED APR 20 2005

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE
IML 15 ENE AKO 35 SW SNY 25 SE BFF 30 E AIA 20 NNW BBW 10 NE EAR 30
S EAR 15 SSW MCK 35 SSE IML.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E
SLO 35 W STL 30 NNW COU 35 SSE P35 30 NE P35 OTM 35 NNW PIA 45 SW
SBN TOL 30 NNW MFD 15 SSW MFD 10 SSW CMH 55 W LUK 30 E SLO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW
DRT 35 WSW ABI 35 NW LTS 40 N CSM 40 SSW END 15 SSW OKC 10 NNE MWL
60 WNW AUS 30 WNW LRD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE
GLD 15 SSW DEN 50 E CAG 40 ENE RWL 25 ENE DGW 40 ENE CDR 10 SW OFK
40 S OMA 35 SSW FNB 25 SE CNK 20 ESE GLD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW WAL 20 E LYH
CSV 50 WNW CHA 40 NNW BHM 35 WSW 0A8 30 SE MOB ...CONT... 20 SSW P07
MAF 45 S LBL 30 WNW GCK 35 NNE LAA 45 WSW COS 45 WSW MTJ 20 SSW U24
30 NNE ELY 40 SSE BAM 80 ESE 4LW BKE 3DU 35 SE GDV 40 N MBG 15 SW
ABR 30 N OTG 20 NNW LSE 40 N GRB APN.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FAR NE CO...WRN NEB AND
CNTRL NEB...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH AND
CNTRL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH AND
MID-MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH THE
EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET REMAINING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY.
THIS WILL CAUSE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

AT THE SFC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM NE
CO EXTENDING EWD ACROSS FAR SRN NEB. SFC HEATING AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD INITIATE STORMS BY MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE PLAINS OF NE CO AND SW NEB WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN NRN CO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z
WEDNESDAY IN SW NEB SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG WITH VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL. VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND
PROFILES AND RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL MAKE A FEW TORNADOES
LIKELY WITH THE MOST INTENSE RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS. AS STORM
COVERAGE EXPANDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...A LINEAR MCS MAY
DEVELOP...MOVING ENEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NEB WHERE HAIL AND
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO WEAKENING
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.

...OH AND MID-MS VALLEY..
AT THE SFC...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NRN MO
EXTENDING EWD ACROSS IL...IND AND OH. AS SFC TEMPS
WARM...CONVERGENCE AND DESTABILIZATION WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE STORMS
MOVING SLOWLY SEWD. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20 TO 30 KT...THIS MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR SEVERE STORMS CONSIDERING MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 60
+ SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN PLACE. AS A RESULT...THE STRONGER
MULTICELL STORMS SHOULD HAVE A HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT NEAR LOCALLY MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY. AS
STABILIZATION OCCURS DURING THE EVENING...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION.

...SRN PLAINS...
AT THE SFC...A DRYLINE WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THE FAR ERN TX
PANHANDLE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WCNTRL TX. SFC HEATING AND INCREASING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD INITIATE A FEW STORMS EAST OF
THE DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ISOLATED BUT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
SHOULD BECOME SUPERCELLS DUE TO THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z SHOW MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST.

..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 04/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.