[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 200102
SWODY1
SPC AC 200101

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E
MCK 25 E DEN 20 SSW FCL 25 WSW CYS BFF 50 W VTN 15 SSE FSD 40 E MCW
35 ESE ALO 15 N CID 20 NNW OTM 30 E MCK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW BUF ELM AVP 25
SSE NEL ...CONT... 15 S ILM SPA 65 WSW LOZ 30 SE SDF 30 NNW LUK 20
ESE MIE 10 E CMI 35 SSW UIN 40 N JLN 35 ENE MLC 30 SE TYR 15 E LFK
30 SSE POE 30 NE MSY 25 S GPT ...CONT... DRT 75 S CDS 25 N GAG 40
NNE GCK 15 S GLD 25 WSW LIC 30 WSW GJT 25 S U24 50 WSW U24 20 WSW
ENV 35 SW TWF 15 SE SUN 30 ESE MQM 40 SE BIS 75 E ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW TVL 25 W SVE
45 SW 4LW 15 ESE 4LW 80 NW WMC 25 WNW LOL 15 ESE RNO 30 NNW TVL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...NE CO/NEB/IA...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD FROM NE
CO ACROSS CNTRL NEB INTO NRN IA. SCATTERED STORMS HAVE INITIATED
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE AS A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS ERN CO AND SW NEB LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE REGION.
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS NE CO AND WRN NEB WHERE MLCAPE
VALUES RANGE FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THIS SUGGESTS A SUPERCELL
THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE BACKED SFC WINDS AND VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS.
THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...MODELS AGREE
THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND THIS
COULD PROMOTE A TRANSITION TO LINEAR CONVECTION. THE LARGE HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS STORMS DEVELOP
NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND SPREAD NNEWD ACROSS NCNTRL NEB. MODELS SHOW AN
MCS DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NEB WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM
SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION. FARTHER EAST ACROSS IA...A SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD ALSO EXIST WITH CELLS THAT INITIATE ALONG AND NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME MARGINAL LATER
TONIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.

...SW TX...
ISOLATED STORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT. HOWEVER...POSSIBLY
DUE TO A LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...A RAPID WEAKENING IS BEING
OBSERVED ON RADAR ACROSS SW TX. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE
WW WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED.

..BROYLES.. 04/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.