[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 191955
SWODY1
SPC AC 191954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2005

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE
HLC 35 N GLD 25 ESE AKO 10 N CYS BFF 45 N VTN MHE SPW 25 SSE FRM 10
WSW MCW 50 NNE ALO 40 NNW DBQ DBQ MLI 25 WSW BRL P35 10 NE HLC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE
P07 30 SSE FST 50 SSE MAF 40 WNW SJT 35 WNW CDS 35 SSE LBL 10 E DDC
P28 35 ESE CSM 10 NNW BWD DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW ILM AND TYS CKV
PAH TBN SGF HOT ELD 10 SE MLU 30 ESE MCB 25 S GPT ...CONT... 40 SSW
P07 FST LBB 25 W AMA LAA ALS DRO 4BL 50 SSW BCE 35 ENE DRA 45 ENE
MER 40 SE MHS 20 NNW 4LW BTM 3HT MLS DIK FAR 40 ENE ELO ...CONT...
30 NNW SYR ITH AVP ACY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TODAY/TONIGHT FROM PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS....

SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF CLOSED LOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN HAS
SLOWED...WITH ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER JET STREAK NOW BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP AROUND ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF CIRCULATION IS PROGGED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...AS UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO/AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.

...PLAINS...
UPPER FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM IS
SOMEWHAT WEAK...BUT DIFLUENT AND AT LEAST WEAKLY DIVERGENT UPPER
FLOW FIELD DOWNSTREAM OF GREAT BASIN LOW IS BECOMING FOCUSED ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO/SOUTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN NEBRASKA.  AIR
MASS ACROSS THIS REGION...NORTH/EAST OF THERMAL LOW NEAR THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER...AND SOUTHEAST OF COLD FRONT ADVANCING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS DESTABILIZING.  WITH FURTHER HEATING 
OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CAPE
IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD
BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH SHEAR
MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.

ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND...AS WEAK IMPULSE
MIGRATING AROUND GREAT BASIN LOW ENHANCES UPPER DIVERGENCE...WHILE
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET...FORCING
IS EXPECTED TO AID EVOLUTION OF LARGER CLUSTER OF STORMS OVERNIGHT. 
THOUGH CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL MOVE LITTLE...A FEW DOWNBURSTS WITH
STRONG GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO A
CONTINUING HAIL THREAT OVERNIGHT.

...MID MISSOURI/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
SHEARING OF IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY IS
ONGOING...BUT FORCING/DESTABILIZATION REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS IS OCCURRING NEAR COLD FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND IN NARROW BAND OF STRONGER
MID-LEVEL FORCING FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA. 
SOME HAIL...PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS...BUT MAIN SEVERE THREAT MAY BECOME FOCUSED IN TRAILING
LOW/MID-LEVEL CONFLUENT BAND DEVELOPING NEAR/EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPER ACROSS THIS AREA...AND MIXED LAYER
CAPE EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO IN
WEAK TO MODERATELY SHEARED FLOW REGIME.  SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO GENERALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS/STABILIZES.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
STRONG CAPPING WILL PERSIST ALONG DRY LINE TODAY...AND ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN ISOLATED.  BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS APPEARS TO BE NEAR/NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF DEL
RIO TX...WHERE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN
SUBTROPICAL JET MAY ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT.  CONVECTION IS ALREADY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST...AND EVENTUAL
EVOLUTION OF AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO APPEARS POSSIBLE IN
FAVORABLY SHEARED/MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

**FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS CONCERNING ONGOING OR MORE IMMINENT
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION.

..KERR.. 04/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.