[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 191611
SWODY1
SPC AC 191610

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT TUE APR 19 2005

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE
P07 60 S CDS 40 WSW P28 25 SSE P28 20 SSW END 35 NNW MWL 25 SSE DRT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE
HLC 20 NW LIC 15 SE DEN 20 SSW FCL 20 NW CYS 15 N AIA 15 WNW ANW 20
NW SUX 35 WSW MCW 20 NE LSE 40 SSE CWA 25 S MTW 40 SSE MKE 35 NW MMO
20 WNW BRL P35 10 NE HLC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ILM SPA 65 WSW
LOZ 30 SE SDF 30 NNW LUK 20 ESE MIE 10 E CMI 35 SSW UIN 40 N JLN 35
ENE MLC 30 SE TYR 15 E LFK 30 SSE POE 30 NE MSY 25 S GPT ...CONT...
35 SW P07 15 NE BGS 25 WSW CDS 55 WSW GAG 20 SW GCK 45 SSE LIC 50 W
COS 20 WNW MTJ 50 SSW BCE 35 ENE DRA 25 NE MER 50 SE RBL 15 N SVE 45
WSW MQM 20 NNE WEY 25 SSW MLS 40 WSW P24 15 SSE GFK 35 NNW ELO
...CONT... 10 WSW BUF ELM AVP 25 SSE NEL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO
MID MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF WRN OK AND TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE/COLD UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE LITTLE THRU
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  E OF ROCKIES THE MID LEVEL VORT ASSOCIATED
WITH MONDAYS SVR ERN NE NOW LOCATED ALONG MN/IA BORDER AND WILL
CONTINUE ENEWD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN CONFLUENT FLOW.

WHILE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS MN INTO SWRN NE/NERN CO...A
CONVECTIVE INDUCED BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS NRN IA WSWWD ACROSS CENTRAL
NE INTO NWRN CORNER OF KS.

SWLY 30-40 KT LLJ CONTINUES TO PROVIDE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY E OF DRY LINE FROM TX TO
IA. THE DRY LINE EXPECTED TO MIX EWD THIS AFTERNOON TO A POSITION
FROM CENTRAL KS SSWWD VICINITY TX/OK BORDER TO TX BIG BEND.

...IA/SRN WI/NRN IL...
WHILE MID LEVEL VORT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS EWD INTO SRN
WI TODAY...SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY/S OF THE E/W BOUNDARY IA/MN BORDER.  BY MID
AFTERNOON MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SURFACE
BASED STORM INITIATION IA INTO SRN WI/NWRN IL. 30-35KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR VICINITY BOUNDARIES SUPPORT
ISOLATED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. PRIMARY THREAT THIS AREA WILL BE LARGE
HAIL GIVEN COOL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7C ALONG WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH SUPERCELLS. STORMS SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS
SRN WI/NRN IL THIS EVENING WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AND DIMINISHING SUPPORT FROM UPPER VORT.

...SRN NEB/NERN CO...
BOUNDARIES/FRONT EXPECTED TO SLOW/STALL ACROSS SRN NEB INTO NERN CO
THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING A SHARP FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. 
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...A MDT TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BY MID
AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES RANGING FROM 2000 J/KG NERN CO TO 3000 J/KG
SRN NEB.  WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK...30KT OR
LESS...THE COMBINATION OF ENHANCED SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARIES...VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HIGH INSTABILITY...WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. 
PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE VERY LARGE
HAIL...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LIKELY AS WELL.  SURFACE BASED
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG/N OF BOUNDARY IN HIGHER
ELEVATION UPSLOPE AREA OF NERN CO/ADJACENT AREAS OF NEB.  STORMS
THEN WILL DEVELOP/PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS SRN NEB VICINITY E/W
BOUNDARIES AND LIKELY CONTINUE A SEVERE THREAT WELL AFTER DARK GIVEN
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.

...WRN OK/WRN TX...
DRY LINE WILL MIX A LITTLE FURTHER E TODAY PER MODELS AS LLJ  HAS
VEERED TO MORE SWLY PAST 24 HOURS.  WHILE MODELS ARE NOT ABLE TO
INITIATE STORMS ALONG DRY LINE THIS AFTERNOON...EXAMINING POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE CAP WILL WEAKEN ALONG DRY LINE BY
LATE AFTERNOON.  WITH A STEEP ELEVATED MIX LAYER WITH LAPSE RATES IN
EXCESS OF 8C/KM ...AND 30-35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...A CONDITIONAL
SEVERE THREAT IS FORECASTED NWD TO KS BORDER AS MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG
WILL BE AVAILABLE.  NUMBER OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED...HOWEVER ANY STORM THAT DOES MANAGE TO INITIATE WILL
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..HALES/GUYER.. 04/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.