[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 170100
SWODY1
SPC AC 170055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2004

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E
RMG 20 NNW RMG TYS 25 WNW HKY 30 WSW SOP 10 SE FLO 20 NNW SAV 40 SE
MCN 20 NNW MCN 20 E ATL 15 E RMG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PNS 15 S TOI 25 WNW
AUO 15 ENE BHM 25 SE BNA 40 SW LOZ 45 ENE LEX 20 WSW SDF 40 WSW BMG
HUF MIE 35 W CLE 25 SW BUF 50 NNW ROC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PBG 25 WSW EFK
MPV PSF POU ABE BWI 30 SE NHK 40 ENE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL HIB MSP MCW SUX
60 NNE BUB 9V9 PIR BIS 70 NW DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE BLI 10 ENE SEA
20 NNW AST.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW CVS 40 SSW DHT
55 E LAA 45 N GCK 35 W RSL 25 NNE P28 25 W CSM 10 W LTS 20 WSW SPS
30 NW MWL 35 S ABI 40 SSE MAF 30 ENE CNM 30 SW CVS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS 60 N TUS 35
NNW SAD 10 NNW SVC 30 SSW DMN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST STATES....

...SOUTHEASTERN STATES...
REMNANTS OF IVAN WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTH NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT
...FROM THE BIRMINGHAM AL AREA TO THE VICINITY OF CHATTANOOGA TN. 
THOUGH SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN RISK OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
TORNADOES.  DESPITE STABILIZING INFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...MID/UPPER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL MAINTAIN
WEAK BUOYANCY IN BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG/EAST OF CIRCULATION CENTER
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST REGION.  BEST POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADIC ACTIVITY MAY BE WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS MOST
PRONOUNCED AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND...ALONG WEAK BAROCLINIC
ZONE FROM NORTHEAST GEORGIA INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.

...OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...
IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO EASTERN CANADA...AND AHEAD OF LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/REMNANTS OF IVAN...FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION HAS BECOME ENHANCED ALONG FRONT IN THE LEE OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.  THIS STRONGER LIFT WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP
EASTWARD NEAR/SOUTH OF THE NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA BORDER OVERNIGHT. 
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION MAY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 17/06Z...BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG/SOUTH OF FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

...PLAINS...
WHILE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST TONIGHT...LOW/MID-LEVEL WARMING IS PROGGED FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.  THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING
CAP...WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOSTLY LIMITED TO VICINITY OF CREST
OF BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
MINNESOTA...WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS LIFTING MOIST MID-LEVEL
PARCELS TO THEIR LEVEL OF FREE CONVECTION.

...SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES...
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA/SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO
SHOULD DIMINISH NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW FOCUSED INTO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES/OLYMPICS MAY
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AS MID-LEVELS COOL OVERNIGHT.

..KERR.. 09/17/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.