[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 101955
SWODY1
SPC AC 101950

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT FRI SEP 10 2004

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ENE
ELO HIB 40 NW BRD 45 ENE FAR 20 ESE GFK 45 W RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W ANJ 35 NNE MSN
50 ENE ALO OFK 30 SE LBF 50 SSW LAA 55 WSW RTN 70 SE PGA 65 NNW GBN
70 SSW GBN ...CONT... 15 W CZZ 40 NNE SAN 15 SW RAL 25 N LAX 15 NW
PMD 30 ESE EDW 15 NE DAG 50 NE DAG 65 WSW LAS 65 SSW DRA 40 ENE NID
50 ESE BIH 30 S ELY 15 ENE U24 40 SE EVW 35 ESE RIW 40 ENE WRL 65
ENE BIL 40 N MLS ISN 55 NNW MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW COT 15 NNE HDO
10 NNE CLL 30 NW HOU 35 NE HOU 25 WNW LCH 25 SSE POE 35 N BTR 20 SSE
LUL 40 SSW AHN 45 NW FLO 40 N HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NRN MN...

...NRN PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
NCNTRL WY AT MID-AFTERNOON.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE ENEWD
THROUGH THE DAKS AND INTO MN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AT
THE SURFACE...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAD MOVED TO A 19Z POSITION FROM
NWRN MN-NERN SD-NERN WY AND WILL MAKE A SLOW PROGRESS TO THE SE
TONIGHT.  

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS/SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS
REMAINS CAPPED OWING TO WARM H85-H7 TEMPERATURES.  BOTH THE 18Z RUC
AND 09Z SREF SUGGEST THAT SURFACE BASED TSTMS INITIATION IS NOT
LIKELY...BUT NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS ERN SD INTO
SWRN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF SURFACE BASED
PARCELS REACHING THE LFC WILL EXIST ACROSS EXTREME NRN MN INTO NWRN
ONT WHERE CAP WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AND MLCAPES OF 750-1200 J/KG
EXIST. 

MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR INCREASING POST-FRONTAL TSTMS TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS WRN/CNTRL SD INTO ERN ND AS THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS LAGGING THE FRONT MOVES NEWD. THE START OF THIS SCENARIO
MAY ALREADY BE UNDERWAY WITH HIGH ELEVATION TSTMS DEVELOPING/
EXPANDING ACROSS ERN WY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED...GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS.

THE EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE NRN PLAINS
WILL BE IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE AND SUGGESTS THAT ORGANIZED SEVERE
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE.  THE HIGHEST RISKS FOR
SEVERE WIND GUSTS/HAIL WILL BE IN NRN MN WHERE THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY/FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE LOCATED.  MORE ISOLD THREATS
FOR GUSTY WINDS/HAIL WILL EXIST FARTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS SD AND
EXTREME NCNTRL NEB.

..RACY.. 09/10/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.