[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 210531
SWODY1
SPC AC 210529

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2004

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE LGB 30 SSE DAG
15 W LAS 30 SSE P38 30 NE BCE 55 SE CNY 20 NW ALS 30 SSE ALS 35 NNW
LVS 45 NW TCS 60 SW TUS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W RRT 40 SSW GFK
30 WNW JMS 40 S P24 40 SSE ISN 60 NNE ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW GLS 20 NNW HOU
25 N CLL 30 WNW TPL 45 NNE DRT 25 ESE FST HOB 25 NNE GAG 20 WNW OLU
55 NE ATY 40 NE STC 35 N VOK 30 S RFD 15 NE UIN 15 SSE FYV 30 E PGO
40 N ELD 15 S GWO 25 NW TCL 35 SSE HSV 35 NW CHA 30 NNW TYS 20 NW
HSS 10 E AVL 25 S AHN 60 ESE MCN 20 NNE SSI.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE IN EARNEST OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
BY THURSDAY EVENING AS HEIGHT FALLS AND ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER
TROUGH NOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. OVERSPREADS THE CNTRL ROCKIES. SURFACE
FRONT FROM SRN OK EWD INTO SRN AR WILL RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT
AS SLY FLOW INCREASES DOWNSTREAM FROM DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. BY
TOMORROW EVENING...THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY ERN NEB
SEWD THROUGH SWRN MO AND INTO NRN AR.


...UPPER MS VALLEY...

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD UNDERNEATH STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
DOWNSTREAM FROM DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. MUCAPE TO 2500 J/KG WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT N OF THE WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL
FOR ELEVATED STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
NWD. THOUGH THE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE IN EXCESS 40 KT...THE ELEVATED
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO
BELOW 30 KT...SUGGESTING MULTICELL STORMS SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT
MODE. NEVERTHELESS...THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.


...W TX THROUGH WRN/CNTRL OK INTO SRN/CNTRL KS...

MOISTURE/DRYLINE WILL LIKELY RETREAT INTO W TX THURSDAY AS PRESSURE
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS BACKS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
SURFACE HEATING...AND MOISTURE RETURNING NWWD UNDERNEATH MODERATELY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS W TX INTO WRN OK WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500
TO 2000 J/KG. CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK ALONG RETREATING
DRYLINE...AND THIS MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PROFILES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOISTEN
OVERNIGHT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AS PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SPREADS NWD AND UPPER DIVERGENCE/LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THUS POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALONG AND E OF
DEVELOPING CONFLUENT ZONE FROM W TX THROUGH W OK. ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE ELEVATED...BUT SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL FOR MID LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION WHICH MAY ENHANCE THREAT
FOR ISOLATED HAIL.

..DIAL.. 10/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.