[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 131636
SWODY1
SPC AC 131635

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2004

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW
CRE 45 SE CLT 25 SW GSO 20 E DAN 15 NNE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW DUG 45 WSW SAD
25 NW SOW 10 SSW CEZ 45 S MTJ 45 SW PUB 20 NNE RTN 50 WNW CVS 55 NW
ABI 45 NNE CLL 40 ESE 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW CHS 10 N TYS
30 SW LUK 15 E MFD 20 SSW DUJ 30 NE CXY 20 SSE NEL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS....

...ERN CAROLINAS AREA...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER KY/TN IS MOVING ENEWD AND GRADUALLY LOSING
AMPLITUDE...WITH AN EMBEDDED MID-UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX INVOF N GA. 
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN GA/UPSTATE
SC...WHILE A WARM FRONT IS MOVING NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL NC.  THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS SLIGHTLY ELEVATED IN THE WAA
REGIME NE OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...WITH LITTLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE SC AREA.  12Z SOUNDINGS REVEALED
SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F/
IN THE WARM SECTOR...BUT ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 6
C/KM.  ADDITIONALLY...DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR
PERSISTENT SEVERE STORMS GIVEN 40-50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW...BUT
WINDS/VERTICAL SHEAR ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG.

WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 500-1000 J/KG...EXPECT
A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SLOWLY RETREATING
WARM FRONT ACROSS NC...WHERE THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS /AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO/ WILL BE GREATER.  FARTHER
W/SW...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT. 
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
CELLULAR OR POSSIBLY EVOLVE INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS...WITH ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

...TX AREA...
A WEAK SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD OVER NRN MEXICO
TOWARD THE BIG BEND...WHILE A DEEP NRN STREAM TROUGH IS DIGGING SEWD
FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD TX BY LATE TONIGHT.  A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN STREAM TROUGH IS ALSO MOVING SWD
ACROSS NW TX AND OK...AND THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH W CENTRAL AND
SW TX BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND S CENTRAL TX LATE TONIGHT.  BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE RANGE OF 65-70 F REMAIN OVER S CENTRAL AND
DEEP S TX AS OF MID MORNING...WHILE DAYTIME HEATING IS CONTRIBUTING
TO DESTABILIZATION FROM S TX INTO W TX.  A FEW ELEVATED STORMS MAY
PERSIST OVER S CENTRAL/SE TX THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS W TX AND
SPREAD SEWD TO S CENTRAL TX OVERNIGHT INVOF THE COLD FRONT.  THE
STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS W/SW TX...REACHING S CENTRAL TX LATE. A
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS WEAK
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR ACROSS S TX.  STILL...SOME PART OF W TX TO
S CENTRAL COULD REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN THE CATEGORICAL
OUTLOOK AT 20Z.

..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 10/13/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.