[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 131253
SWODY1
SPC AC 131251

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2004

VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE
CHS 50 NW FLO 20 SW GSO 20 NE DAN 20 NNE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE SAV 40 NNW AGS
20 E CSV 35 NE SDF 40 SE DAY 20 NNW PIT 10 NW CXY 20 ENE ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E DUG 45 WSW SAD
25 NW SOW 35 W FMN 45 WSW RTN 65 ENE 4CR 55 NW ABI 30 ESE ACT 40 ESE
7R4.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AND THE
CAROLINAS...

...VA SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OPENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER
THE WRN TN VALLEY WITH DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING NEWD
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. AT THE SURFACE...MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER SRN IND WITH A SECONDARY...WEAKER LOW
OVER WRN NC. WARM FRONT ATTENDANT TO THIS SECONDARY LOW EXTENDED
ESEWD ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHED SWD
ACROSS UPSTATE SC INTO S-CNTRL GA.

CLUSTERS OF MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE VA/NC PIEDMONT REGION WITH OF FORCING AHEAD OF LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE MOVING/DEVELOPING
NEWD ACROSS ERN NC/SERN VA THIS MORNING...HOWEVER RELATIVELY WEAK
INSTABILITY N OF WARM FRONT SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY
WITH APPROACH OF TN VALLEY TROUGH. WARM SECTOR /CHARACTERIZED BY
MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG PER 12Z CHS SOUNDING/ CURRENTLY IS
CONFINED TO NERN GA AND ERN SC. AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING INCREASES
AHEAD OF TN VALLEY SYSTEM...EXPECT AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE NWD
ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT AND ADJACENT COASTAL PLAIN INTO SERN VA.
RELATIVELY WEAK CAP SHOULD ALLOW TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG RETREATING
WARM FRONT SWD ACROSS WARM SECTOR AND ALONG COLD FRONT. INCREASINGLY
BACKED LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR /OWING TO
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT/ WILL RESULT IN SHEAR PROFILES
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

...TX...
COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N-CNTRL
CONUS WILL DIVE SWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AND WILL LIKELY BE
THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. PRESENCE OF RATHER STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-7.5 C/KM AND DAYTIME HEATING ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF AROUND
1000 J/KG/ AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PERMIAN
BASIN...SWRN TX AND CONCHO VALLEY. DESPITE RELATIVELY STRONG WLY MID
AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW...FAST SWD FRONTAL MOTION SUGGESTS THAT ANY
DEVELOPING STORMS WILL EITHER BECOME ELEVATED ATOP POST-FRONTAL AIR
MASS OR ASSUME MORE OF A LINEAR CONFIGURATION ALONG SURGING FRONTAL
ZONE. GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL
PRODUCTION...A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL.

ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
REGION ESEWD THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL
PLAIN. THOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAKER...A MORE MOIST
BOUNDARY-LAYER IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. RELATIVELY WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT TSTM COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING...THUS WARRANTING ONLY LOW
PROBABILITIES. STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
APPROACH OF COLD FRONT...HOWEVER ONSET OF DIABATIC HEATING WILL
EFFECTIVELY LEAD TO DECREASING INSTABILITY AND INHERENT SEVERE
THREAT.

..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 10/13/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.