[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 081915
SWODY1
SPC AC 081913

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CST MON NOV 08 2004

VALID 082000Z - 091200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 50 ESE DAG 55 N
DAG 60 NNE NID TPH ELY 20 W SLC GJT 15 W DRO GNT 10 NW TCS 30 SSW
DMN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK ROTATING AROUND CLOSED
LOW IS ALLOWING SURFACE HEATING TO CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY/SOUTHERN PLATEAU.  THIS IS
OCCURRING AS COLD CORE ALOFT BEGINS TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD/
EASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...GENERALLY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF LAS
VEGAS...APPEARS TO BE AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER...WHICH IS STILL FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED IN
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL WEAKEN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF STRONGER FORCING
DEVELOPING CLOSER TO YUMA BY 09/00Z...BEFORE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OVERNIGHT. 

GIVEN SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES...HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN MOST INTENSE CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...EVEN WHERE THERE
IS SURFACE HEATING...RELATIVELY COOL LOWER LEVEL POST FRONTAL AIR
MASS IS MINIMIZING STEEPNESS OF LAPSE RATES/CAPE AND VIGOR OF
UPDRAFTS.  THUS...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS.

..KERR.. 11/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.