[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 051950
SWODY1
SPC AC 051948

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CST FRI NOV 05 2004

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z.

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MINIMAL RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ARE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ROTATING
AROUND CLOSED LOW OFF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. 
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES IS CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...WITH APPARENT EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING...
ROUGHLY 50-100 MILES WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF VANDENBERG AFB. 
WHILE ONE WEAK WAVE ROTATES EAST THROUGH NORTH OF UPPER
CIRCULATION...ANOTHER WAVE IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH
EAST OF CIRCULATION...AND MAY APPROACH SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...WITH CORE OF COLDER AIR ALOFT LIKELY
TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS
APPEARS VERY LOW.

...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
COLD FRONT IS NOW PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MIAMI AREA INTO THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS.  WARM MID-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  A GRADUAL MID-LEVEL COOLING IS FORECAST
OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  HOWEVER...WITH FRONT ADVANCING
OFFSHORE/SOUTHEAST OF THE KEYS...PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
INLAND AREAS APPEARS VERY LOW.

..KERR.. 11/05/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.