[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 051624
SWODY1
SPC AC 051622

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1022 AM CST FRI NOV 05 2004

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW MRY 30 ENE MRY
40 NNW PRB 30 SE PRB 10 SE SBA.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...
CYCLONE NOW DEEPENING OVER NEW BRUNSWICK EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENE
ACROSS THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE LATER TODAY/EARLY SATURDAY....WHILE
CLOSED SYSTEM OFF THE CNTRL CA CST SETTLES SLOWLY S ACROSS THE FAR
ERN PACIFIC.  OTHERWISE...DRY W TO NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE U.S.

UNIDIRECTIONAL WNW FLOW ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO LONG AXIS OF LK ONTARIO
...AND DEEP MIXED ENVIRONMENT IN WAKE OF NEW BRUNSWICK LOW...HAS
SUPPORTED DEVELOPMENT OF A QUASISTATIONARY CONVECTIVE BAND ACROSS
CNTRL NY...DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LAKE.  DIURNAL HEATING MAY LEAD TO
MODEST DESTABILIZATION OF THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER INVOF THE BAND
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...THIS SHALLOW DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE OFFSET BY WARM ADVECTION IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER OCCURRING
IN WAKE OF WITHDRAWING LOW.  THUS...THE CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN
WITH TIME AND ANY ASSOCIATED THUNDER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.

SCATTERED BANDS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO GLANCE THE CNTRL
CA CST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS OFFSHORE LOW WOBBLES SLOWLY SWD.  WITH
LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER CA LIKELY TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY...
AND WITH MAIN UPPER CENTER ALSO REMAINING OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS...ANY THREAT FOR THUNDER SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...ROUGHLY FROM MRY S TO NEAR SBA.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 11/05/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.