[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 022008
SWODY1
SPC AC 022007

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 PM CST TUE NOV 02 2004

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW
7R4 25 ENE BTR 40 SW LUL 35 E LUL 35 S SEM 25 N PNS 30 WSW PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE PSX 45 SSW CLL
10 ESE BWD 20 NW ABI 10 SSW CDS 10 SW CSM TUL UMN 10 NNW PAH 45 ESE
IND 15 NNW MFD 20 NE YNG 25 ENE PIT MGW 5I3 30 W HSS 40 NW AND 25 SW
AHN 30 WNW MCN 40 WNW ABY 20 WNW AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE BLI 40 NE SEA
35 E PDX 40 NNW MFR 30 NE ACV 40 SSW EKA.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST....

CORRECTED TYPO UNDER "OHIO VALLEY"

MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
...INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST STATES BY LATE TONIGHT.  THIS
WILL LEAVE SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
NORTHWEST TEXAS...BUT A SLOW NORTHEAST PROGRESSION COULD BEGIN LATER
TONIGHT...AS UPSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST.

...WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ASSOCIATED WITH NOW DISSIPATED EARLY
MORNING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...HAS PROGRESSED FAR EAST OF SOUTHERN
BRANCH LOW/TROUGH.  WHILE SLOW EASTWARD MOTION IS ONGOING ACROSS
EASTERN TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL ALABAMA...BOUNDARY HAS STALLED ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA.  LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM
OF UPPER TROUGH...ABOVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY  HAS SUPPORTED WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
IS LIMITING VIGOR OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

IN WARM SECTOR SOUTH/EAST OF BOUNDARY...LOWER/MID 70S SURFACE DEW
POINTS ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000
J/KG...BUT WEAK FORCING WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  THUS...
IT APPEARS ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO CELLS DEVELOPING IN
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF BOUNDARY...WHERE AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST OR
PERHAPS A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE IN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR/FLOW
REGIME.

FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION/MID-LEVEL COOLING IN LEFT EXIT
REGION OF JET STREAK IS SPREADING AROUND SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
CLOSED LOW.  THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST
/NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.  ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST/INCREASE AND SLOWLY
DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

...OHIO VALLEY...
NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF LOWER/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...AROUND WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC COAST RIDGE.  AS LIFT/COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH
NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD MOIST LAYER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...DESTABILIZATION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...
AS COLD MID-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES INTO COASTAL AREAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

..KERR.. 11/02/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.