[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 300600
SWODY1
SPC AC 300556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE
FSM 30 ENE FYV 10 WNW SGF 45 NE COU 30 E UIN 15 WNW DEC 30 S MTO 40
NNE PAH 15 W DYR 25 WNW MEM 60 WSW MEM 20 SSE LIT 10 WNW HOT 40 ESE
FSM.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE
PGO 35 NE JLN 35 ENE IRK 40 WSW RFD 15 SSW CGX 40 WNW MIE 25 NE SDF
15 W BNA 30 WSW UOX 45 S PBF 45 N TXK 10 ENE PGO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE
0A8 45 NW MEI 35 NW ESF 20 S LFK 60 E ACT 10 SSE MLC 25 SE OJC 25
NNE CID 30 NE RST 30 SSW STC 35 ENE BRD 25 SW IWD 45 NW MKG 40 SE
DTW 30 SE YNG 35 SW MGW 25 SSE 5I3 20 SE RMG ANB 20 NE 0A8.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E PSX 20 NNE VCT
SAT 60 WNW AUS 20 S MWL 40 SSE PNC 15 NNE ICT 30 SSE LBF 50 ESE AIA
15 NW PHP 30 SSE MBG 45 N DVL ...CONT... 30 NNW JHW 15 ESE NEL
...CONT... JAX 35 SE GNV PIE.

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN/SRN
MO...NRN/CNTRL AR...AND SRN IL...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA
ACROSS MUCH OF AR...CNTRL MO...MUCH OF IL...WRN IND...WRN
KY...MIDDLE/WRN TN AND NWRN MS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN TX AND THE SRN STATES
INTO THE UPPER MS VLY AND UPPER OH VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONGEST JETSTREAM ENERGY REMAINED ON WEST SIDE OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH
LATE SATURDAY AND WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS SUNDAY. 
ORIENTATION OF TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH PRONOUNCED
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID MS/LOWER OH VLYS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  AT THE SURFACE...OCCLUDED LOW WILL MOVE NWD FROM
THE DAKS NWD TO SRN CANADA.  ATTENDANT FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MS VLY DURING THE DAY WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER AR.  THIS LOW
WILL MIGRATE NEWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE MID MS VLY DURING THE
EVENING.  A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NEWD THROUGH THE
MIDWEST...MID/UPPER OH VLY AND SERN STATES.


...MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PART OF
THE MID MS/LWR OH VLYS SWWD INTO THE OZARKS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

...LOWER-MID MS/LWR OH/TN VLYS AND THE OZARKS...
SIGNIFICANT H5 HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MS VLY AREA AS LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SLY FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER OH
VLY BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  WHILE VARYING AMOUNTS OF
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION MAY REDUCE INSOLATION FARTHER NORTH...A NEARLY
CLOUD-FREE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW STRONG HEATING TO OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION.  MLCAPES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 2500-3000 J/KG BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

TSTMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE BY MID-AFTERNOON SUNDAY VCNTY THE COLD
FRONT OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM NERN-SWRN MO AND ERN OK.  GIVEN
POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...TSTMS ARE APT TO QUICKLY GROW
INTO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE 40-50 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES.  VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
LIKELY.  STRONG VEERING IN THE LOWEST LAYERS WITHIN A LOW LCL
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO PROVE ADEQUATE FOR THE RISK OF STRONG
LONG-LIVED TORNADOES.  THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE VCNTY ANY
SUB-SYNOPTIC LOWS THAT MIGRATE NEWD FROM AR INTO SCNTRL/SERN MO.

TSTMS WILL BE MORE ISOLD FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NERN
TX...BUT COULD ALSO BECOME SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.

AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS BECOME ORIENTED MORE PARALLEL WITH THE
FRONT...TSTMS WILL LIKELY TEND TO DEVELOP INTO LINE SEGMENTS FARTHER
NORTH ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN IL. FARTHER SOUTH...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
DISCRETE ACROSS THE LOWER OH/MID MS VLYS INTO THE EVENING.

THEN...ACTIVITY COULD CONGEAL INTO A SEVERE MCS OR TWO AND BEGIN
FORWARD PROPAGATING INTO PARTS OF THE TN VLY LATER AT NIGHT WITH THE
RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES.  NRN PORTION OF
THE LINE WILL PROBABLY PIVOT ENEWD INTO THE MIDWEST BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.

...UPPER MS VLY...
SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE MORE UNCERTAIN FARTHER NORTH INTO THE UPPER
MS VLY.  AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG
ALONG/EAST OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT.  GIVEN SUFFICIENT HEATING...TSTM
LINE SEGMENTS COULD DEVELOP THAT COULD GIVE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL.

...MID/UPPER OH VLY...
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES FOR DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLD TORNADOES AND
HAIL WILL EXIST ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MID/UPPER
OH VLY REGIONS.  MIDLEVEL RIDGING AHEAD OF DEEPENING CNTRL PLAINS
TROUGH MAY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.  BUT...GIVEN A
TSTM...PRESENCE OF AMPLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT AN ORGANIZED
STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

..RACY/TAYLOR.. 05/30/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.