[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 280537
SWODY1
SPC AC 280534

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW
MCN 15 WNW SEM 30 NE MCB 15 ESE ESF 15 W MLU 15 WSW GWO 10 SSE MSL
20 SE CSV 30 S BLF 25 ENE DAN 20 SW GSB 15 SW FLO 40 NNW MCN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE
DVL 45 NE FAR 10 WSW STC 35 NNE MCW 40 NW DSM 35 ENE OLU 40 WSW 9V9
20 S Y22 40 WSW P24 40 NNE MOT 50 NE DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE PSX 30 SSW CLL
30 ENE ACT 45 SSE DUA 25 ENE MLC 45 WNW FYV 10 NW SGF 40 SE VIH 35
ESE MVN 30 WSW LUK 30 E ZZV 10 NNW BGM 30 WNW EFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SSI 15 NE MAI 15 SW
MOB 30 SE 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W RRT 35 SSW DLH
30 WSW CWA 10 ENE MSN 45 E MLI 15 S BRL 25 E P35 25 NNW STJ 35 W LNK
35 SSE BUB 25 E LBF 40 SSW IML 35 S LIC 45 SSE GUC 30 SSE 4BL 15 SE
LAS 60 N NID 45 NNE FAT 35 NW TVL 30 NE 4LW RDM 25 E OLM 30 NE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MO
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN LA TO NC...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY
FRIDAY AHEAD OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN U.S.  LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL BE CONFINED TO WARM ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE
MIDDLE/UPPER MO RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.  OTHERWISE...ASCENT AHEAD OF ERN U.S.
TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE...OR WELL NORTH OF ANY APPRECIABLE REGION
OF INSTABILITY.

...NRN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY...

LARGE SCALE WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS LLJ INCREASES MARKEDLY AFTER DARK FROM NEB INTO SERN SD. 
THIS APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT GIVEN LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE PLAINS.  THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT STRONG DIABATIC HEATING MAY
AID ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS WRN
NEB...HOWEVER THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 03Z NORTHEAST OF RETREATING WARM
FRONT WHERE PARCELS LIFTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY YIELD MUCAPE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000J/KG.  STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND VEERING
PROFILES WILL FAVOR STORM ROTATION.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY ELEVATED SUPERCELLS AFTER DARK.

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC TO WRN GULF COAST REGION...

COMPLEX MCS STRUCTURE CURRENTLY EXISTS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WWD INTO WRN KY.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE ITS ESEWD MOVEMENT
WITH LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY.  HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY SHOULD DRAPE
WSWWD ACROSS THE SRN TN VALLEY REGION INTO THE WRN GULF COAST STATES
AHEAD OF SHEARING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  IT APPEARS THIS
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE MAY PROVE ADEQUATE FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  OF PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE THE FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.  MODELS SUGGEST DEEP LAYER LAPSE
RATES WILL NOT STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY EXIST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...AND LITTLE COOLING IS
EXPECTED.  THUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE TO OBTAIN ROBUST
CHARACTERISTICS.  CURRENT THINKING IS REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY REGENERATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITHIN
REASONABLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...BUT MARGINAL
LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY.  ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY BEFORE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF REGION.

..DARROW/CROSBIE.. 05/28/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.