[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 160103
SWODY1
SPC AC 160059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW
RRT 20 ESE GFK 25 W FAR 45 N ABR 60 NE MBG 30 SSW JMS 75 NNE DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW CMX BRD AXN FSD
OLU EAR MCK GCK LBL DHT CVS FST 110 SW P07 ...CONT... 25 SE DUG SAD
ABQ SAF 50 WSW COS EGE LAR RAP Y22 25 NNW BIS 75 NNE DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ORF GSO SPA
ATL 35 S CEW ...CONT... 45 SSE LCH UOX BNA 5I3 BKW EKN 20 ENE EFK
HUL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NE 63S MSO DLN MQM
IDA PIH 45 S TWF OWY 4LW LMT 20 S PDX 55 ENE BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW CTY VRB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN ND/EXTREME NWRN MN...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD BELT OF WEAKLY CYCLONIC TO ZONAL FLOW CHARACTERIZES SYNOPTIC
UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER MUCH OF CONUS EXCEPT SERN STATES.  SHORTWAVE
TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN/SWRN
MANITOBA TO CENTRAL ND -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD TOWARD NWRN ONT AND
NRN MN THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.  ANOTHER TROUGH ALOFT -- PRESENTLY
OVER INTERIOR PACIFIC NW AND NRN GREAT BASIN -- WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS
MUCH OF UT/WY BY 16/12Z.

AT SFC..COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...DE
VALLEY AND WRN VA...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY SWWD OVER TN/AL/MS.
FRONT ARCS NWWD ACROSS OK THEN NWD OVER CENTRAL KS/NEB/DAKOTAS AS
WARM FRONT.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT -- NOW MOVING SEWD ACROSS ND AND
EXTREME SERN MT -- WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF WRN MN AND WRN/NRN SD BY
END OF PERIOD.

...NERN CONUS...
SCATTERED TSTMS IN BANDS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS
PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...AHEAD OF SFC COLD
FRONT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS APCHG SEVERE LIMITS -- BUT STILL CAPABLE OF
TREE/WIRE DAMAGE -- ARE POSSIBLE.  DIABATIC COOLING HAS BEGUN...BUT
PRE-STORM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION
THROUGH AROUND 3Z WITH TEMPS 70S TO LOW 80S F AND DEW POINTS LARGELY
LOW-MID 60S F. ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG MLCAPE EVIDENT IN IAD RAOB...WITH
ABOUT 500-800 J/KG DCAPE...IN VERY WEAKLY SHEARED KINEMATIC PROFILE.
 AFTER ABOUT 03Z CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY WILL BECOME
NARROWER SPATIALLY AS IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS WITH CONVECTION APCHG
COAST.

...DAKOTAS/WRN MN THROUGH ABOUT 6Z...
COLD FRONTAL TSTM BAND OVER ERN ND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NWRN MN BEFORE WEAKENING.  POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED
STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS FARTHER S OVER SERN ND HAVE DISSIPATED...AS
SHOULD ACTIVITY FARTHER S ALONG WARM FRONT OVER SD.  00Z ABR RAOB IS
STRONGLY CAPPED FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION...AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY WELL
REPRESENTATIVE OF AIR MASS ALONG AND E OF SFC WARM FRONT INTO WHICH
REMAINING ISOLATED CELLS ARE MOVING.  EXPECT WEAKENING OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION S OF COLD FRONT...WHILE COLD FRONTAL LINE MOVES EWD
ACROSS ERN SD INTO NWRN MN.

...NWRN NEB...SWRN/S-CENTRAL SD LATE TONIGHT...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS MAY DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 06Z OVER
THIS REGION...AS INCREASINGLY MOIST PARCELS ARE ISENTROPICALLY
LIFTED TO LFC. EXPECT LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME TO INTENSIFY AHEAD OF
APCHG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...IN CONCORDANCE WITH LEE-SIDE/LOW-LEVEL
CYCLOGENESIS IN CO.  THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK MIDLEVEL
ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION WILL RESULT IN STEEPENED LAPSE RATES ATOP
INCREASING HUMIDITY WITHIN 700-850 MB LAYER.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE
IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN CAPE-BEARING LAYER
OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE HAIL.

...SRN ROCKIES TO FAR W TX...
EXPECT COVERAGE OF TSTMS TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING OVER REGION DURING
REMAINDER EVENING. INCREASING STABILITY EXPECTED BECAUSE OF
COMBINATION OF DIABATIC SFC COOLING AND SPREADING OUTFLOW POOLS FROM
EARLIER/ONGOING CONVECTION.

..EDWARDS.. 05/16/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.