[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 152009
SWODY1
SPC AC 152006

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CDT SAT MAY 15 2004

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W
RRT 25 SSW GFK 25 S JMS 50 NNE MBG 45 SSW BIS 40 ESE DIK P24 50 N
MOT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE
BOS 15 SW ISP ...CONT... 20 SW JFK 10 WNW TTN 10 NW ABE 10 NNE AVP
45 ENE BGM 20 W MPV 40 N BML 30 W 3B1 20 ENE 3B1 30 NNE BGR 20 SW
BHB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE LCH 35 ESE MLU
15 W UOX 10 SE CKV 15 ESE CAK 30 WNW SYR 30 NW PBG ...CONT... 15 SE
SBY 20 SW GSO 40 NW AGS 30 S MCN VLD GNV MLB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CTB 50 NNE GTF
35 N LWT 70 SW GGW 35 SSE GGW 70 NNW ISN ...CONT... 75 NW CMX 25 E
BRD 35 ESE BKX 20 ENE OFK 40 W CNK 30 S DDC 30 SSE AMA 25 SW MAF 45
SSW P07 ...CONT... 20 SE FHU 60 E SOW 40 NNW 4SL 60 WSW COS 20 NW
DEN 20 E LAR 30 WSW DGW 35 NE RIW 30 SE JAC 45 SW OWY 70 NE SVE 55
NNW SVE 20 NNE MHS 40 N MFR 30 SSE SLE 50 ENE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ND AND FAR NW
MN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES...

...ND/NW MN...

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS FAR SERN MT. AS THIS BOUNDARY
CONTINUES SEWD...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
FRONT. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS EXPANDING ACROSS NCNTRL
ND AND THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD ACROSS ND. A LINE OF
STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE ALONG THE FRONT BUT A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION ACROSS SD AND SRN ND SHOULD INHIBIT THE SRN DEVELOPMENT OF
THE CONVECTION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR NRN ND SHOW STRONG VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS
AND ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. MID-LEVEL
TEMPS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM -25 TO -27 C AND THIS SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL
WILL BE A THREAT WITH THE CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IN
PLACE.


...NEW ENGLAND STATES...

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS ERN
PA AND SERN NY WHERE MID 60 F SFC DEWPOINTS EXIST. MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ALONG THIS AXIS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS SERN NY AND CNTRL PA.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE AND THIS
WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT WITH THE STORMS. IF SEVERE
CONVECTION GETS ORGANIZED...THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE WIND DAMAGE
CONSIDERING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEED 8.0 C/KM ACROSS THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA.


...NERN NM...

MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS W TX EXTENDING NWD INTO SE
NM WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 50S F AND TEMPS ARE
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S F. ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP IN THE MTNS AND MOVE EWD INTO THE LOWER TERRAIN. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THIS SUGGESTS A FEW
ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE FAIRLY WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPS...THE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL. THE
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER DARK AS INSTABILITY DECREASES.


...ERN CO...

CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OFF THE MTNS OF CNTRL CO AND THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO THE CO HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK ACROSS ERN CO...500 MB TEMPS ARE
BETWEEN -16 AND -19C WHICH WILL FAVOR ISOLATED HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS. WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL KEEP THE STORMS
ISOLATED AND THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DROP OFF AFTER DARK WHEN THE
INSTABILITY DECREASES.

..BROYLES.. 05/15/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.