[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 130554
SWODY1
SPC AC 130551

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE
CDS CSM END MKC 45 SSE P35 45 E COU UNO JCT 60 W JCT 50 NNE P07 BGS
25 SE CDS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S P07 45 SSE LBB
PVW 30 ESE CVS 30 WSW CVS 50 NE 4CR 40 SSW ALS GJT EVW MLD 45 SW MQM
30 SE DLN 45 N COD GCC 35 NE DGW 45 E CYS 35 ESE AKO 30 NNE GLD 35 S
EAR 35 ESE GRI RWF 40 ESE BRD 55 SE ELO ...CONT... 10 ESE SSI 15 SSW
CTY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL MO TO W-CENTRAL TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...WRN CONUS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD OVER
GREAT PLAINS THROUGH PERIOD...AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE MOVES TO
NEB/KS/OK/WRN TX BY END OF PERIOD.  ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW
ANALYZED FROM LS SWWD ACROSS NWRN MO AND SRN KS...TO SERN CO -- IS
FCST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS MO/OK AND NWRN/W-CENTRAL TX THROUGH PERIOD.
 DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EWD ACROSS W TX THROUGH ABOUT 21Z...TO
INTERSECTION WITH COLD FRONT IN CDS-SPS-FSI REGION...SSWWD PAST
SJT...THEN RETREAT WWD AFTER 00Z.  SOME UNCERTAINTIES EXIST
REGARDING FRONTAL POSITION AROUND TIME OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION
DURING AFTERNOON...BECAUSE OF TENDENCIES OF SHORT-RANGE MODELS TO
UNDER-FCST LEE-SIDE COLD AIR SURGES THROUGH MID SPRING.

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE INVOF COLD FRONT DURING AFTERNOON...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED ALONG AND JUST E OF DRYLINE.  TSTMS MAY
INITIATE EARLIEST NEAR TRIPLE POINT OVER SW OK/NW TX WHERE BOUNDARY
LAYER CONVERGENCE IS RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED...IN WHICH CASE
SIGNIFICANT HAIL POTENTIAL AND OVERALL SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY
BECOME MORE TIGHTLY FOCUSED IN THAT REGION.  ALTERNATIVELY TSTMS MAY
INITIATE ALONG FRONT OVER CENTRAL/NERN OK AND DISCRETELY PROPAGATE
SWWD TOWARD DRYLINE...WITH MORE ELONGATED THREAT. IN EITHER
EVENT...DESTRUCTIVELY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DAMAGING
GUSTS. SFC DEW POINTS MID 60S TO LOW 70S AND STRONG DIABATIC
HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME INSTABILITY...MLCAPE EXCEEDING
4000 J/KG.  THOUGH AMBIENT SHEAR PROFILES ARE PROGGED TO BE
RELATIVELY WEAK -- I.E. 25-35 KT SHEAR IN 0-6 KM LAYER --
STORM-SCALE PROCESSES MAY ENHANCE SHEAR LOCALLY.  TORNADO THREAT IS
NONZERO BUT IS ALSO SECOND-ORDER COMPARED TO WIND AND HAIL.

POTENTIAL INVOF MOST OF DRYLINE SHOULD BE TIED STRONGLY TO DIABATIC
HEATING AND THEREFORE RESTRICTED TO RELATIVELY NARROW TIME WINDOW --
21Z-03Z.  VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT...LIMITING
STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE. 
DRYLINE ACTIVITY SHOULD INITIATE WITH RELATIVELY HIGH LCL...GIVEN
INTENSE INSOLATION AND MIX OF 50S/60S SFC DEW POINT AIR...BUT ANY
STORMS SURVIVING EWD SIGNIFICANTLY INTO HIGHER THETAE MOIST SECTOR
WILL HAVE 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE AVAILABLE.  TSTMS INVOF RED RIVER
MAY EVOLVE INTO HAIL AND WIND PRODUCING MCS MOVING SLOWLY EWD OR
ESEWD DURING EVENING.

...WRN GULF COAST...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS POSSIBLE BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
IN WEAKLY CAPPED SUBTROPICAL AIR MASS...WITH APPROXIMATELY 1000 J/KG
MLCAPE FCST.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH MARKEDLY AFTER ABOUT 02Z AS
COMBINATION OF DIABATIC COOLING AND CONNECTIVE OUTFLOWS RESULT IN
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION.  WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW MAY LIMIT
DURATION AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH INDIVIDUAL TSTMS IN
THIS AREA.  HOWEVER...LOCALIZED SHEAR ENHANCEMENTS MAY SUPPLEMENT
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AMBIENT LOW LEVEL PROFILES...PARTICULARLY INVOF
OUTFLOW AND/OR SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND THEIR INTERSECTIONS. 
MODIFIED ETA FCST SOUNDINGS YIELD ROUGHLY 150 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH...AND
BRN SHEAR NEAR 50 J/KG.  WIND AND TORNADO THREATS APPEAR TOO
CONDITIONAL ON MESOBETA TO STORM SCALE PROCESSES FOR CATEGORICAL
SEVERE RISK...BUT THERE ARE MARGINAL PROBABILITIES FOR EACH.

..EDWARDS.. 05/13/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.