[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 130111
SWODY1
SPC AC 130108

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0808 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2004

VALID 130100Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW
STJ 25 ENE MKC JLN TUL 25 SE OKC BWD 35 NW SJT 40 WSW GAG LBL 40 S
LAA LHX 35 SSE AKO 35 SSW MCK 15 NNW RSL 15 NNE MHK 10 WSW STJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE PSX JBR UNO
MLC 60 SSE DRT ...CONT... 20 S P07 15 ENE BGS 40 SW CDS 60 SW GAG 50
SSW LBL 20 NE CAO 10 ENE RTN 55 N 4SL 45 SW CEZ 20 W ENV 40 S OWY 85
WNW OWY BKE S80 55 WNW 27U 30 WNW DLN 40 SSW LVM 20 ENE CPR BFF LBF
EAR LNK FOD EAU 15 SSW CMX ...CONT... 25 E MSS 10 WNW MPV LCI PSM
...CONT... 45 SSE JAX 45 SSE CTY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN FEATURES MEAN TROUGH OVER WRN CONUS...WITH
EJECTING MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER SWRN MANITOBA. 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER
LOWER MS VALLEY -- WILL MOVE SLOWLY NEWD TOWARD OH VALLEY AND SRN
GREAT LAKES REGIONS DURING REMAINDER PERIOD...EXTENDING POTENTIAL
FOR GEN TSTMS THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATED ZONE OF WEAK
LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT IS MOVING EWD ACROSS LS/UPPER MI/WI...SEWD
ACROSS IA/NWRN MO...AND SWD OVER NERN AND SWRN KS.  FRONT ARCS WNWWD
ACROSS SERN CO.  EXPECT FRONT NEAR SSM-RFD-MKC-P28-TCC LINE BY
13/12Z...PERHAPS EFFECTIVELY SHUNTED SWD ACROSS PORTIONS KS/OK
BORDER REGION BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS.

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
CONFIRMED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS UNDERWAY OVER PORTIONS SW KS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL/TORNADO OCCURRENCE NEXT FEW
HOURS. REF SPC WW 193 AND ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR
NOWCAST INFO.  THIS APPEARS TO BE PRIMARY POTENTIAL GENESIS REGION
FOR MCS THAT WOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN KS AND KS/OK BORDER REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH PRIMARILY WIND AND HAIL THREAT AFTER APPROXIMATELY
6Z.  ACTIVITY WILL BE SUSTAINED WITHIN WESTERN PORTION OF 45-55 KT
LLJ.

OTHER STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS -- INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS -- ARE
EVIDENT FARTHER S ACROSS PORTIONS WRN OK/NW TX...E OF DRYLINE THAT
SHOULD RETREAT OVER NEXT FEW HOURS.  REF WW 194 AND RELATED
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. ACTIVITY OVER TX IS MORE HIGH-BASED...MORE
STRONGLY TIED TO DIURNAL/DIABATIC HEATING AND ASSOCIATED DRYLINE
ASCENT...THAN ACTIVITY FARTHER N...AND SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE WITHIN 2-3 HOURS AFTER SUNSET.  MEANWHILE...DAMAGING
HAIL/WIND ARE POSSIBLE.

LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS FROM TSTMS NOW OVER ERN
CO...ALONG AND N OF SFC COLD FRONT.  REF SPC WW 195 AND ASSOCIATED
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST INFO.  WITH BULK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STRONGER S-R INFLOW FARTHER SE ACROSS SRN KS...EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 4Z.

...WI/IL...
TSTMS OVER THIS REGION SHOULD BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED THROUGH NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH LOS OF DIURNAL HEATING...AMIDST WEAKLY
SHEARED/UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES. ISOLATED GUSTS NEAR
SEVERE LEVELS POSSIBLE BUT POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED ENOUGH TO 
MAINTAIN ONLY MARGINAL PROBABILITIES.

...SERN LA...
CLUSTER OF STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS IN WEAK SHEAR REGIME WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS REMAINDER SERN LA AND THEN OVER
COASTAL/OFFSHORE WATERS DURING NEXT FEW HOURS. REF SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION 676 FOR SHORT TERM FCST DETAILS.

..EDWARDS.. 05/13/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.