[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 090052
SWODY1
SPC AC 090049

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004

VALID 090100Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW
BUF 25 NW ITH 25 ESE ELM 20 ESE PSB 20 E PIT 20 SSW MFD 10 E MIE 10
ESE DNV 20 E SPI 40 SSE IRK 30 NW TOP 10 NE HLC 20 ENE LBF 30 WNW
VTN 35 ESE REJ 40 SW DIK 60 N ISN 55 NNE ISN 60 N DVL 35 SW FAR 45
WNW RWF 15 NNE RST 20 N GRB HTL 55 SE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW SYR 35 WNW GFL
25 SSW PWM ...CONT... 10 SSE ACY MRB 25 NNE SHD 15 N LYH DAN 20 SSE
EWN ...CONT... 35 NW ELO 30 NNW RHI 10 SSW IMT 40 W PLN 15 NE APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W ELP 15 E ALM 15
WNW 4CR 25 ENE LVS 30 ENE TAD 25 N LAA 40 SE SNY 45 W SHR 30 WSW DLN
70 NNW 4LW 45 ESE OTH 20 N OTH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E ILM 40 NNW CHS
20 SE JAX 40 S VLD 25 NNE MGR 45 N MCN 50 E CHA 20 SW HTS 10 WSW LUK
BMG 20 SW MTO 10 W SZL HUT 25 N CDS 15 SSW BGS 15 SSW P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LRD 35 SE BWD 25 ESE
SPS 25 SSW MKO FSM 10 WNW HOT 50 ESE SHV 35 ESE POE 15 WSW 7R4.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...

...NRN PLAINS...
A COUPLE OF TSTM CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING CURRENTLY OVER WRN PORTIONS OF
THE DAKOTAS. THOUGH QUASI-LINEAR SYSTEM OVER WRN ND IS MOVING INTO
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...DYNAMIC FORCING AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING ENEWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD
SUSTAIN ONGOING TSTMS EWD INTO CNTRL/ERN ND OVERNIGHT. STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY-LAYER AND STRONG
SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD MAINTAIN A CONTINUED DAMAGING WIND THREAT
MAINLY THIS EVENING INTO CNTRL ND. 

OVER SD...CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE MORE SEWD ALONG
PRE-EXISTING SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE BLACK HILLS SEWD
INTO N-CNTRL NEB AS OF 00Z. 00Z UNR SOUNDING INDICATES THAT STRONG
SURFACE HEATING HAS LARGELY CONTRIBUTED TO WEAKLY TO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AS DEWPOINTS STILL REMAIN IN THE 40S. DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS AND SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR OF 40-50KTS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF ORGANIZED TSTMS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. 

...NEB AND IA...
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS EVENING FROM ERN
NEB EWD INTO WRN AND CNTRL IA ALONG AND S OF SURFACE FRONT WITH 00Z
OAX SOUNDING INDICATING A MLCAPE OF AROUND 2500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH
RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL WINDS /I.E. 15-25KTS AT 500MB/ ARE
CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED FROM OAX TO DMX...DEVIATE RIGHTWARD MOTION
EXHIBITED BY SEVERAL STORMS IS ENHANCING LOW TO MID-LEVEL
STORM-RELATIVE WINDS WITH A THREAT OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

AS LLJ INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING ACROSS SRN/CNTRL PLAINS...ONGOING
TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN TO COALESCE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND PROPAGATE
MORE SWD WITH A WIND/HAIL THREAT EXTENDING INTO NERN KS/NRN MO
OVERNIGHT. 

...GREAT LAKES REGION/OH VALLEY...
BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA COUPLED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS WI HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS FROM WRN LOWER MI SWWD INTO SRN WI. ALTHOUGH 
THIS ACTIVITY IS MAINLY N OF SURFACE FRONT WITHIN COOLER/DRIER
SURFACE CONDITIONS...SWLY FEED OF STRONG INSTABILITY /PER 00Z DVN
SOUNDING/ ATOP SHALLOW STABLE LAYER WILL SUPPORT A WIND/HAIL THREAT
EWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI TONIGHT. 

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SURFACE FRONT OVER NRN IND INTO OH 
INTO PA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS ACROSS IND INTO OH WHILE DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE EWD INTO PA WHERE STRONG WIND
SHEAR PROFILES CURRENTLY EXIST.

..MEAD.. 05/09/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.