[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 081620
SWODY1
SPC AC 081616

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004

VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW
BUF 20 WNW ELM 20 NNE IPT 35 WNW CXY 25 SSE PIT 30 SW MFD 25 NNW MIE
15 ENE PIA 15 ESE OTM 20 ESE OMA 40 WNW BIE 45 SW EAR 20 ENE LBF 30
WNW VTN 20 S RAP 35 ENE 81V 65 NNE OLF 55 NNE ISN 55 NNE MOT 45 SE
JMS 20 SSE AXN 20 ENE EAU MTW 45 W MBS 55 N MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ACY 15 NNW MRB
20 SSE EKN 15 NNE ROA 15 NNW DAN 20 NE ECG ...CONT... 30 N BUF 15 SW
POU 15 SW ISP ...CONT... 35 NW ELO 30 WNW RHI 50 SSW IMT 30 NE TVC
15 N OSC ...CONT... 15 WSW ELP 25 WSW 4CR CAO 10 SE LAA 40 ESE SNY
50 SSW GCC 50 ENE COD 20 SW DLN 70 NNW 4LW 45 ESE OTH 20 N OTH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE DRT 35 W BWD
30 E DUA 20 SSE JLN 35 W UNO 40 ESE HRO 10 E SHV 45 WSW POE 25 SSW
BPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE SAD 30 NW SAD
30 SW SOW 10 E SOW 65 E SOW 75 WNW TCS 50 ENE SAD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW CRE 30 W CHS
30 WNW SSI 35 SSE VLD 25 SE TLH 25 N PFN 20 WSW ATL 20 SW UNI 15 S
CMH 20 NNE IND 10 ESE DNV 40 W LWD 45 ENE HLC 30 WNW CDS 25 NE BGS
75 E FST 15 S P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF NRN /CENTRAL PLAINS
EWD INTO NRN OH VALLEY......

...SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY FAST WLYS WILL BE CONFINED TO NEAR AND N OF U.S. CANADIAN
BORDER THIS FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF PAC NW
COAST...HOWEVER A S/WV TROUGH HAS MOVED INLAND AND WILL RAPIDLY
CROSS MT INTO NRN HI PLAINS TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SWD E OF APPALACHIANS TO VICINITY NC/SC BORDER
WHILE W OF APPALACHIANS THE FRONTAL BAND EXTENDS WWD ACROSS OH TO
CENTRAL IA AND NRN NEB. A WEAK SURFACE LOW SWRN NEB WITH TROUGH SWD
THRU WRN KS WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY. LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW OF 20-30 KT
IN WARM SECTOR OF CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PERSIST...MAINTAINING  A
STEADY FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE.

...ERN NEB EWD INTO NRN OH VALLEY...

WITH VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO MORE THAN 9C/KM ACROSS
KS/NE/IA AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING  BOTH SIDES OF FRONTAL ZONE FROM
IA INTO NEB...AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPES RANGING UPWARDS TO 3000 J/KG. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
MARGINAL...THE LOW LEVEL VEERING PROFILES VICINITY OF E/W FRONTAL
ZONE COUPLED WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY DOES SUPPORT SUPERCELLS ONCE
THE CAP WEAKENS TO ALLOW SURFACE BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT.  PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...HOWEVER ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD ALSO BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL SUNSET.

SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND EWD VICINITY AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL ZONE INTO NRN OH VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AGAIN HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

......NRN HIGH PLAINS...
S/WV TROUGH PAC NW WILL MOVE ACROSS MT THIS PM WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL SLY FLOW WRN DAKOTAS.  WHILE MOISTURE IS LIMITED...GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...MDT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND UPWARD
MOTION AHEAD OF S/WV TROUGH...ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY MID
AFTERNOON ERN MT.  WITH MUCAPES UPWARD TO 1000 J/KG AND RELATIVELY
HIGH BASED STORMS...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL AS STORMS DEVELOP EWD INTO WRN ND BY THIS EVENING.

...CAROLINAS...
HAVE ADDED A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE VICINITY THE FRONTAL ZONE
THAT IS NOW NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER.  WITH THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR
ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MDT/STG
INSTABILITY A FEW STORMS THIS PM COULD RESULT IN LARGE HAIL.  WEAK
SHEAR PRECLUDES ANY MORE THAN A MINIMAL RISK ATTM.

...WRN TX/NM BORDER AREA..
SLY/SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS A FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. 
WITH THE WEAK UPPER LOW NOW E OF AREA...THE MID AND UPPER  FLOW W TX
IS NLY...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE AREA  EVEN
WITH THE FLOW GENERALLY LESS THE 20KT AT ALL LEVELS.  MDT/STG
INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FORMING BY MID AFTERNOON
VICINITY AND E OF E SLOPES NM/SWRN TX MTNS.  LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DOWNBURST WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT  GIVEN THE OVERALL WEAK SHEAR
AND UPPER SUPPORT.

..HALES/BANACOS.. 05/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.