[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 081241
SWODY1
SPC AC 081238

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW
BUF 20 WNW ELM 20 NNE IPT 35 WNW CXY 25 SSE PIT 30 SW MFD 25 NNW MIE
15 ENE PIA 30 S OTM 25 ENE BIE 40 NNW CNK 45 SW EAR 20 ENE LBF 30
WNW VTN 20 S RAP 35 ENE 81V 65 NE 4BQ 25 WNW DIK 40 WNW BIS 25 ESE
JMS 25 N AXN 20 ENE EAU MTW 45 W MBS 55 N MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SAV 55 ESE MCN
20 NNE ATL 60 SSE TYS 15 ENE HTS 30 NNW UNI 20 NE DAY 15 WNW SPI STJ
35 WNW EMP 20 ESE GAG 25 ENE BGS 25 WNW SJT 40 E SJT 25 SE BWD MLC
25 ESE UMN 20 NW ARG 30 S TXK 30 NNE GLS ...CONT... 10 NE JAX 10 WSW
CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE DLH 25 NE AUW
30 NW MBL 30 SSW OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE BUF BDR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 20 E ROW 45
NNW CAO 10 E SNY 55 NNE DGW 15 ENE COD 45 S 27U 50 NNW 4LW 55 SSE
EUG 15 WNW ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE ACY 10 N BWI
40 NNW RIC 15 S RIC 10 SE ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS TO
WRN PA...

...CENTRAL PLAINS TO OH VALLEY...

WLY LLJ AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY.  THIS FOCUS FOR ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
STEADILY EWD MIGRATION OF ONGOING MCS ACROSS WI/LOWER MI INTO
UPSTATE NY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION ARE
NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
REMAINING SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG ELEVATED UPDRAFTS.  MAJOR AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO SUPPORT
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION THUS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AND
LARGELY DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION WITHIN DEEP WLY FLOW REGIME.  LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ERN-MOST
CONVECTION...WITH A SLIGHTLY INCREASED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS
WARM FRONT RETREATS TOWARD UPSHEAR GENERATING ELEMENTS.

FARTHER WEST...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
PLAINS RESULTING IN DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER THERMALS FREE TO CONVECT BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON.  EARLY MORNING SOUNDINGS ALREADY SUPPORT A QUICK
WARM UP WITH A NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE JUST OFF THE SFC
THROUGH 500MB AT LBF.  HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ESPECIALLY
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL HAMPER STORM ORGANIZATION FOR SRN MOST
ACTIVITY.  IT APPEARS HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE ACROSS
THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHERE PARCELS WILL BE FREE TO CONVECT BY
DIURNAL PEAK HEATING ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE.  WLY LARGE SCALE
MEAN WIND WILL ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS
AND CENTRAL NEB WHERE IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY STRONG
LLJ...ESPECIALLY BY EARLY EVENING.  WITH TIME STRONG WARM ADVECTION
ON NOSE OF LLJ SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MCS/S ACROSS
ERN NEB INTO IA.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROVE EFFICIENT IN GENERATING
HAIL ATOP COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS THAT WILL SLOWLY RETREAT NWD
ACROSS NEB/IA.

..DARROW/CROSBIE.. 05/08/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.