[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 312004
SWODY1
SPC AC 312003

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004

VALID 312000Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUL 15
NNE AUG 15 SSE LCI 30 N EWR 35 WSW DCA 15 NW MRB 30 E PSB BGM 30 WNW
PBG.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N
DVL 25 NNE BRD 70 S DLH 10 NNW LSE 35 E ALO 40 SW ALO 55 ENE OMA YKN
ABR 55 NNE MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SW P07 25 SE FST
BWD TXK 25 WNW UOX BWG SDF 10 NW CLE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS IGM CDC EVW
TWF WMC 25 W RBL 15 SSE EKA 50 NNE 4BK 20 S SLE BKE 65 E S80 MSO 55
NE 63S ...CONT... 25 ENE ELO 35 W IMT MKE IRK 25 SE EMP DDC EHA ROW
ELP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF ERN PA/NY AND
NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NRN PLAINS...

...ERN PA AND NY INTO NEW ENGLAND...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY...WITH A BAND OF 35-45 KT SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING
ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT IS LOCATED BACK IN
OH...A THICK AREA OF CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM THE FRONT EWD FOR ABOUT
150-200 NM. THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR THE ERN EDGE OF
THESE CLOUDS WHERE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING HAS STRENGTHENED THE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND AIDED IN CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS ARE
PRESENT AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORM LINE...WEAK LAPSE RATES ARE
LIMITING THE INSTABILITY TO MLCAPES FROM 1000-1500 J/KG.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW MAY RESULT IN SMALL BOWS
WITHIN THE LINE AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. THE STRONGER 
UPDRAFTS WILL BE DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING...SO STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN
AFTER SUNSET.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED IN NWRN ND
AND IS MOVING ESEWD AT 40 KT. THIS CURRENT MOTION WOULD PLACE THIS
FEATURE IN SERN ND BY 00Z. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS
LOCATED IN CENTRAL SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO SWRN MN
AND THEN SEWD INTO CENTRAL IA. LOW LEVEL JET FROM CENTRAL KS NWD
INTO SWRN MN HAS INCREASED THE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT.
THE LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO ADVECTING DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS RESULTING IN UP TO 2000 J/KG IN
THE WARM SECTOR. WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING/MOISTURE ADVECTION...THE
AIR MASS SHOULD FURTHER DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40 KT IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND HAIL WOULD
BE THE MAIN THREAT AS STORMS DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THE FOCUSED LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY EVOLVE STORMS INTO A LINEAR
SYSTEM...WITH WIND DAMAGE LIKELY TO BECOME THE GREATER THREAT AS THE
STORMS MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA TONIGHT.

...ERN NEB/NERN KS AND NRN MO...
HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED IN WRN SD AND WILL MOVE SEWD
DURING THE EVENING AS ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
STORMS HAVE A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING AS THEY ENCOUNTERED
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...DUE
TO THE CAPPING INVERSION...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER STORMS
WOULD BE ABLE TO INGEST RICHER MOISTURE. THEREFORE ...ONLY A 5%
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE ATTM.

..IMY.. 07/31/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.