[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 311602
SWODY1
SPC AC 311600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004

VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE
DVL STC ALO 30 SSE DSM 40 NNW FNB OLU PIR BIS 55 NE MOT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUL
CON POU ABE CXY AOO DUJ SYR 35 ENE MSS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 30 NNW GBN
40 SE IGM 30 WSW GCN 45 S 4BL 35 SSE MTJ 30 SW CAG 40 ENE VEL 45 NNE
ENV 30 NNW WMC 25 W RBL 20 SE EKA 50 WNW MFR 25 E EUG 30 NNE BKE 65
E S80 45 E 3TH 70 ENE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE FNT 20 E HTL
MBL 30 N MMO 35 W JEF 30 WNW JLN 30 SE CDS 30 SSW HOB 30 SSW INK 25
SW SJT BWD 30 S PRX 60 SW JBR 40 SE PAH 15 ESE OWB 30 W LUK 40 E TOL
15 ESE FNT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF PA/NY/NEW
ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...

...PA/NY/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES THIS
MORNING...WITH BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
WINDS /35-45 KNOTS/ EXTENDING FROM OH/WV ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.  MAIN
SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE ALSO LIES ALONG THIS AXIS...AND WILL PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF PA/NY/VT THIS AFTERNOON.  AIRMASS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IS VERY MOIST...BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
WILL LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY TO MODERATE LEVELS /MLCAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG/.  THIS SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE
RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT BY
MID-AFTERNOON. ETA/ETAKF/RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE DEEP
LAYER AND LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND SMALL
BOWS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OR ISOLATED TORNADOES.  STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD AS FAR EAST AS PARTS OF VT/NH/MA BEFORE WEAKENING
AFTER SUNSET.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR GGW. 
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS BY EVENING.  A RATHER MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE
OVER THIS REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG.  AS DAYTIME HEATING
WEAKENS CAP...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF EASTERN SD/EASTERN ND/WESTERN MN AND
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF IA/NEB DURING THE EVENING. 
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR
LIKELY.  LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR A
THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA/SOUTHEAST
SD THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

..HART/TAYLOR.. 07/31/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.