[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 210032
SWODY1
SPC AC 210030

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E
INL 50 SSE DLH OSH 35 SE CGX 20 W DNV 20 WNW DEC 35 E UIN 30 S OMA
10 W BUB 25 NNE VTN 30 ENE PHP 65 N PHP 75 NW MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW FHU 55 NNW TUS
50 SW PRC 45 NNE IGM 65 WNW P38 10 NW TPH 30 NNE LOL 45 W BOI 20 SE
27U 15 SSW MSO 20 ESE 3TH 15 SW 63S 35 N 4OM ...CONT... 25 SSE PFN
25 SSE MAI 25 W SSI 30 NNW SAV 30 NNW AGS 10 S SPA CLT 30 WSW RIC 25
SW CHO HTS 15 NNE LEX 40 NE OWB 40 SE MVN 35 SSW BLV 30 ENE JEF 20
WSW STJ 25 SW MHK 55 ENE BGS 20 SE P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WRN GREAT LAKES...

...NRN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY...
EARLY EVENING MESOANALYSIS INDICATED N-S ORIENTED PRESSURE TROUGH
/DELIMITING HOT...DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FROM VERY MOIST
LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS/ FROM CNTRL ND SWD THROUGH CNTRL PORTIONS OF
SD/NEB AND THEN INTO WRN KS. STRONGEST TSTM ACTIVITY ATTM WAS
CO-LOCATED INVOF SURFACE LOWS OVER CNTRL ND AND SERN SD/NERN NEB
WITHIN REGIONS OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. COPIOUS
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG DIABATIC HEATING HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO STRONG TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALONG THE MO
VALLEY NWD INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH MLCAPES OF 3500-4500
J/KG /PER 00Z OMA SOUNDING/. THOUGH REGIONAL PROFILERS INDICATE A
RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS /I.E. REGION IS BETWEEN
STRONGER FLOW CHANNELS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER ERN
IA/WI AND THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/...STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND THE
EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO.

DEVELOPING SWLY LLJ FROM CNTRL/ERN KS INTO CNTRL IA SHOULD MAINTAIN
CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EWD INTO PORTIONS OF MN/IA
OVERNIGHT.

FOR SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE ON ERN ND PORTION OF SLIGHT RISK...PLEASE
REFER TO MCD 1745. 

FARTHER W...LOOSELY ORGANIZED BAND OF ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WERE MOVING/DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS
INTO THE NEB PNHDL WITHIN REGION OF FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS. LOCAL AIRMASS IS
COMPARATIVELY DRIER...BUT HOTTER THAN ENVIRONMENT TO THE
E...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...IN
ADDITION TO ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

...UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES...
THOUGH SURFACE FEATURES ARE MORE WEAKLY DEFINED THAN PATTERN
CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATING SEWD ACROSS WI AND ERN IA. COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG PER 00Z DVN AND
GRB SOUNDINGS/ AND THE PRESENCE OF 30-35KT MID-LEVEL WIND MAX
ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
MULTICELL AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING THIS
EVENING INVOF OF LEE TROUGH FROM WRN KS INTO THE TX PNHDL WITHIN
DEEPLY-MIXED AIRMASS WHERE MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO 1500-2500 J/KG
/REF 00Z LBF AND DDC SOUNDINGS/. THOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS
WEAK...POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WILL EXIST OWING
SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND MERGING COLD POOLS.
ISOLATED...MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST
INTENSE UPDRAFTS.

..MEAD.. 07/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.