[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 202103
SWODY1
SPC AC 202101

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 PM CDT TUE JUL 20 2004

VALID 202100Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E
INL 50 SSE DLH OSH 10 E CGX 40 NW DNV 20 NW CMI 35 E UIN 30 S OMA 20
NNW BBW 25 NNE VTN 45 N RAP 55 NNW REJ 60 NNW ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE PFN 25 SSE MAI
25 W SSI 30 NNW SAV 15 W AND 10 SSW AVL CLT 30 WSW RIC 25 SW CHO HTS
15 NNE LEX 10 ENE CKV 35 ENE JBR 25 SW UNO 30 ENE JEF 20 WSW STJ 25
SW MHK 55 ENE BGS 20 SE P07 ...CONT... 40 WSW FHU 55 NNW TUS 50 SW
PRC 45 NNE IGM 65 WNW P38 10 NW TPH 30 NNE LOL 15 E BNO 35 SE ALW 45
NNE S80 30 E 3TH 15 SW 63S 35 N 4OM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS ACROSS
THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY...

AMENDED TO EXTEND SLGT RISK ACROSS WRN ND

.....AMENDED AREA...
REFERENCE SWOMCD 1741. DEEP MIXING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IS
SUPPORTING INCREASING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INTO WRN ND ATTM.  AS
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS INTO INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS ND THIS EVENING...
STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS.


.....PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.....
...GREAT LAKES...
REFERENCE SWOMCD 1739. COMBINATION OF LITTLE IF ANY INHIBITION AND
DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS WI INTO PORTIONS OF LOWER
MI SUGGEST A FEW STRONG TO BRIEFLY-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE NUMEROUS
AS LAKE BREEZES REMAIN ACTIVE...HOWEVER PRIMARY FOCUS WILL REMAIN
NEAR FRONT PRONOUNCED IN CU FIELD FROM NEAR MSP INTO SRN U.P. OF MI.
HERE...MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT MULTICELL ORGANIZATION
WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF A FEW SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS.

...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT OVER THE ERN
DAKOTAS/SWRN MN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  MID TO UPPER 70F SURFACE DEW
POINTS AND STRONG HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE AN ALREADY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THIS REGION.  COMBINED EFFECTS OF FURTHER
HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD WEAKEN CAP AND ALLOW RAPID
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT FROM S-CENTRAL SD/N-CENTRAL NEB INTO SWRN
MN BETWEEN 21-00Z.  /REFERENCE SWOMCD 1740/.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
REMAIN QUITE STEEP WITH SUFFICIENT LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS.  THEREFORE EXPECT A THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY INTO ERN SD/NERN NEB/SWRN MN/NWRN IA
THROUGH THE MID EVENING.  ACTIVITY MAY BUILD UPWARDS INTO AN MCS
LATER THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES CAPPED AND SWLY LLJ
INTENSIFIES.  

...ERN TX PANHANDLE...
RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING MCV WILL HAVE A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY
CAPPED /PER OBSERVED 18Z AMA AND RUC-FORECAST SOUNDINGS/...THOUGH
SHEAR REMAINS VERY WEAK.  THUS...STRONGER CELLS AND RESULTANT SEVERE
THREAT EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED/PULSE IN NATURE.

..EVANS.. 07/20/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.