[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 142021
SWODY1
SPC AC 142019

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW
SNY 60 SSE 81V 20 NNE 4BQ 30 SW GDV 15 W SDY 35 SW P24 50 NE MBG 25
WSW HON 35 NNE GRI 25 SSE HSI 35 NE HLC 40 SW MCK 35 NE AKO 20 WSW
SNY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE
HUM 35 SW GPT 30 SW LUL 15 WSW GLH 30 NW LIT 10 W HRO 40 SSW TBN 10
SSW CGI 20 ENE CKV 35 SW LOZ 30 W BKW 40 SE LBE 35 WSW ELM UCA 25 N
POU 10 SSW JFK ...CONT... 20 E JAX 25 W CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S PSX 50 SSW LFK
15 SSE SHV 20 W ELD 20 SSW HOT 10 NNW FSM 25 WNW BVO 25 S RSL 30 SE
LAA 20 WSW DHT 30 WNW LBB 20 NE MAF 65 NE P07 45 NW DRT ...CONT...
30 SE LGB 30 ESE EDW 40 ENE NID 30 W DRA 60 E TPH 45 SW ELY 50 NNW
ELY 45 ENE EKO 45 E OWY 20 WSW S80 20 NNW PDT 60 W BNO 55 NNE LMT 50
N MFR 15 WNW EUG 45 NW SLE AST ...CONT... 30 NE ELO 25 NE DLH 40 SW
DLH 10 ESE RWF 25 NNE SPW 30 S FOD 25 NE LWD 35 WSW UIN 35 SSE MVN
40 ENE OWB 30 W LUK 40 ESE FWA 20 SE AZO 50 W MBS 20 SSE ANJ
...CONT... 45 N BML PSM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
INTO PARTS OF THE SERN U.S....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS....

...SYNOPSIS...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW
MOVING EWD/NEWD OVER ERN LAKE ERIE/WRN LAKE ONTARIO.  ASSOCIATED
TROUGH EXTENDS SWD THRU THE UPPER OHIO AND ERN TN VALLEYS MOVING EWD
INTO THE ERN STATES TONIGHT.  MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER SWRN CO. THIS HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE NWLY FLOW FROM
THE DAKOTAS INTO NRN PARTS OF AL/GA.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL PA SWD/SWWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND NWRN GA...THEN WWD
ACROSS NRN AL AND NRN MS.  A PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT REACHES FROM THE
COLD FRONT OVER N CENTRAL PA ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL NJ. COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EWD THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD EXTENDING FROM SERN
NY SWD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...THEN EXTENDING WWD THRU
CENTRAL GA...AL AND MS BY 15/12Z.

...ERN STATES FROM PA INTO THE CAROLINAS...

MORNING MODELS INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF 100-115 KT
EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SEWD INTO S CENTRAL KY THAT WILL
EXTEND EWD ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER BEFORE TURNING NEWD OFF THE JERSEY
COAST. THIS PLACES AREA OF THE DELMARVA IN FAVORABLE EXIT REGION AS
WELL AS BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  AIR
MASS IS VERY UNSTABLE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPE CURRENTLY
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG AND LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING LAPSE
RATES NEAR/AROUND 7C/KM.  THUS...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL LOOK TO BE
THE MAIN THREATS.  HOWEVER...LOOKING AT THE LATEST VAD WINDS
PROFILES...0-1KM HELICITY VALUES ARE BETWEEN 100 AND 120 M2/S2 WITH
LCL VALUES 3-4K FEET INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

...TN VALLEY REGION...

COLD FRONT BECOMES QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS NRN AL AND NRN MS WITH
VERY HIGH INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE 850 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
NRN TN INTO SRN MO.  STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED S OF
THIS BOUNDARY AIDED BY STRONG HEATING WITH MLCAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND
2000 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7.0 -
7.5C/KM INDICATING THAT THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION IS
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

...PARTS OF THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SMALL MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH/ASSOCIATED VORT MAXES ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE MEAN
RIDGE FROM NERN MT/SERN SASKATCHEWAN SEWD WITHIN THE NW FLOW INTO SD
AND NE.  SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW 60S ALONG THE
QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM SWRN NE THRU A LOW OVER E CENTRAL MT. 
MLCAPES ARE MODERATE WITH VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG WITH
STILL SOME CAPPING ACROSS THE AREA.  SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING OVER THE BLACK HILLS AS WELL AS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS IN WY.
 THUS...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT  JUST E
OF THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING INTO CENTRAL AREAS OF SD/NE BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

...PARTS OF SRN NV INTO AZ...

WEAK ELY MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS PRESENTED
SOME WEAK SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION.  LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT AIR
MASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE IN SOME AREAS WITH SBCAPE BETWEEN 3000
AND 4500 J/KG FROM THE DESERTS INTO SRN NV AND NWRN AZ...AND LAPSE
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 7 AND 8.5C/KM.  RUC MODEL FORECAST
SHOWS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE REGION INDICATING THE THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THRU EARLY TONIGHT.

..MCCARTHY.. 07/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.