[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 141717
SWODY1
SPC AC 141715

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2004

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW
BVE 30 SE JAN 20 SSW JLN 30 SSW LBF 40 WSW CDR 30 NE MLS 10 N GDV 30
NW Y22 65 W YKN 50 WNW CGI 35 ESE BWG 20 ENE HTS 25 SE LBE 10 ESE
BFD 20 NNE IPT 15 N NEL ...CONT... 20 E JAX 25 W CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N BML PSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW DRT 65 NE P07
20 NE MAF 30 WNW LBB 20 WSW DHT 30 SE LAA 25 S RSL 35 SW CNU 20 S
FYV 10 WSW HOT 20 W ELD 15 SSE SHV 15 NW LFK 15 S PSX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE LGB 20 WNW DAG
45 NNE DAG 25 WNW LAS 50 SW P38 45 SW ELY 50 NNW ELY 45 ENE EKO 45 E
OWY 20 WSW S80 20 NNW PDT 60 W BNO 55 NNE LMT 50 N MFR 15 WNW EUG 45
NW SLE AST.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE ANJ 50 W MBS
20 SE AZO 40 ESE FWA 30 W LUK 40 ENE OWB 35 SSE MVN 30 NE P35 30 ENE
OMA 15 SE SUX 40 S FSD 15 SSE BKX 10 NE ATY 50 WSW AXN 20 N AXN 10
SW BRD 40 SW DLH 25 NE DLH 30 NE ELO.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF ERN U.S.  WWD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL U.S. TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDER LINES

...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH/LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SEWD INTO NY/PA
TONIGHT WITH STRONG ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER JET ROTATING EWD ACROSS ERN
OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC STATES BY TONIGHT.  SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WRN NY WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN WHILE SECONDARY LOW WILL
DEVELOP ON THE TRIPLE POINT DELMARVA THIS AFTERNOON.  WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE A LITTLE N ACROSS NJ WHILE COLD FRONT TO W DROPS INTO LEE
TROUGH E OF APPALACHIANS FROM MD SWWD INTO CENTRAL NC.

COLD FRONT TRAILS SWWD ACROSS KY INTO SRN KS AND THEN WNWWD TO ERN
CO.

...DELMARVA...
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE E OF LEE TROUGH LOCATED
VICINITY BLUE RIDGE  IN VA/NC. WITH APPROACH OF THE VIGOROUS UPPER
TROUGH AND THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP VICINITY AND E OF LEE TROUGH TO COAST AS FAR N AS SRN NJ
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WITH MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG AND LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACKING AND INCREASING TO E OF LEE TROUGH...CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  GIVEN THE LOW LCLS AROUND
2K FT AND SFC-6KM SHEAR INCREASING TO 30-35KT THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE WITH ANY SUPERCELL
THAT DEVELOPS THIS AREA.

...TN VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES...
FURTHER S THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW OF 30-40 KT
WILL SUPPORT WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS STORMS DEVELOP UNDER STRONG
HEATING DURING AFTERNOON. MUCAPES FROM 2500-4000 J/KG WILL BE COMMON
TO S OF FRONTAL ZONE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE MCS'S
DEVELOPING AND MOVING RAPIDLY SE ACROSS THIS AREA. A MORE ORGANIZED
SEVERE/WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY MCS
DEVELOPMENT WHICH ATTM IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE LOCATION OF
INITIATION...OTHER THAN LIKELY NEAR OR JUST S OF FRONTAL ZONE.

...LOWER MO VALLEY NWWD TO NRN HIGH PLAINS...

NWLY FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES
WILL PERSIST.  WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ELY FLOW TO N OF FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS... THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF
HIGHER TERRAIN LATER TODAY.  SHEAR AND MUCAPES TO 3000 J/KG SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND VEERING SHEAR PROFILES
FAVORING POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY
THREAT ALONG WITH LOCAL DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.  AGAIN STORMS
COULD EVOLVE INTO AN MCS EARLY TONIGHT AND TRACK SEWD ACROSS NEB
INTO ERN KS/MO IN NWLY FLOW.

...AZ...
WITH CONSIDERABLE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...WEAKER LAPSE RATES NOW
PREVAIL IN DESERT VALLEYS.  THIS SHOULD REDUCE CONCERN FOR
DOWNBURSTS WIND DAMAGE TODAY.

..HALES.. 07/14/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.