[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 300501
SWODY1
SPC AC 300500

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 PM CST WED DEC 29 2004

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW AST 25 NNW SLE
50 E OTH 45 SW MHS 50 N PRB 20 WNW SMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE DTW FWA LAF
BMI 20 ENE BRL 55 SSW LSE 40 ENE EAU IMT 35 E PLN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTAL STATES...
THOUGH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA DURING THE PERIOD. A
SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE NRN ROCKIES...IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EWD AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/NRN GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND INTO SWRN ONTARIO TONIGHT. DESPITE THE UNUSUAL WARM
WEATHER ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE NATION...WARM TEMPERATURES AND
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THIS REGION.

...GREAT LAKES AREA...
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EWD INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY...50-60 KT
LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION. AT THE SAME
TIME...A COLD FRONT ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...
IS FORECAST TO COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES 4-6C. THE ADDED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COOLING ALOFT MAY PROVIDE FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES FOR
MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-300 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG
FORCING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...PACIFIC COAST...
WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH ANCHORED IN THE AREA...500 MB TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE -28 TO -30C RANGE...RESULTING IN STEEP LAPSE
RATES FROM THE SURFACE TO 450 MB. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES SHOULD BE ALONG THE NRN AND CENTRAL
CA COASTS...WHERE LIFT/UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE ACCENTUATED BY 25-35
WSWLY WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

..IMY.. 12/30/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.