[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 300049
SWODY1
SPC AC 300047

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0647 PM CST WED DEC 29 2004

VALID 300100Z - 301200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S ONP 55 N LMT 55
S 4LW 20 WSW RNO 30 N MER 25 SSE MRY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PGA 30 ESE 4HV 40 SSW
GJT 20 SSE MTJ 55 NE DRO 55 ESE DRO 40 SE GNT 35 ESE DUG 40 WSW FHU
55 ESE GBN 15 NE PHX FLG PGA.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FOUR CORNERS REGION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
EJECTING RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS AZ TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. DESPITE
WEAK INSTABILITY...VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND SFC-500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 6.5C/KM IS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER
THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NEWD OUT OF THE AREA.

...CNTRL PAC COAST...
THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT...WITH H5 TEMPERATURES FROM -28 TO -30C...WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THESE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WERE RESULTING IN STEEP LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY FROM 700 TO 375 MB.
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...THOUGH THE DEEP COLD
ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES.

...CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MS VLY...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN AZ
MOVES NEWD INTO NEB TOWARD DAYBREAK. EVE SOUNDINGS WEST OF THE AREA
ACROSS THE PLAINS WERE DRY AND STABLE...WITH SIGNIFICANT
MODIFICATION REQUIRED FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE
700 MB MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP TOWARD 12Z...BUT THE BUOYANT LAYER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP FOR MORE THAN ONE OR TWO LIGHTNING STRIKES.

..IMY.. 12/30/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.