[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 220531
SWODY1
SPC AC 220529

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 PM CST TUE DEC 21 2004

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW
HOU 40 NE HOU 20 SSW TCL 25 SW AUO 15 E AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRP 40 ESE SAT 30 W
ELD 15 SSE DYR 45 W LOZ 15 SE JKL 45 SSW BLF 20 WSW CLT 20 WSW CAE
45 NNE AYS 25 S CTY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER TX COAST ACROSS
THE CNTRL GULF STATES INTO THE FL PNHDL...

...SYNOPSIS...
EXPANSION OF BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL CONUS
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE SRN
ROCKIES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SHIFTING THIS SYSTEM
EWD ACROSS TX TODAY AND THEN INTO THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WHILE
ACCOMPANYING MID/HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS THE
GULF COAST REGION. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW INITIALLY NEAR
BRO IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD ALONG COLD FRONT INTO
THE CNTRL TN VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...TRAILING PORTION OF
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TO NEAR THE
BIG BEND REGION OF FL BY THURSDAY MORNING. 

...GULF COAST...
CURRENT SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS ACROSS
THE WRN AND CNTRL GULF BASIN CONTINUES TO MODIFY WITH 60 F DEWPOINTS
NOW ONSHORE AS FAR E AS THE LA COAST...AND MID 60S DEWPOINTS N OF
BUOYS 42019...42038 AND 42041. LOW-LEVEL RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM TX WILL MAINTAIN A 30-40 KT SWLY LLJ ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...ALLOWING FOR THE NEWD EXPANSION OF PRE-FRONTAL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS INTO PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/ERN GULF
STATES. STRONGEST INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG/ WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS WITHIN 50-100 NM OF THE COAST WHERE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ARE FORECAST.

CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING INITIALLY ALONG COLD FRONT
FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY SWWD TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST. AS
INCREASINGLY STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING OVERSPREADS FRONTAL
ZONE...EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY WHILE
MOVING/DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS AND RESULTANT 45-55 KTS OF 0-6
KM SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES
EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES
APPEARS TO BE FROM PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL/SERN LA NEWD ACROSS SRN MS
INTO SWRN AL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HERE...A CORRIDOR OF
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SHEAR /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH
APPROACHING 350-450 M2/S2/ WILL EXIST E AND NE OF DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW. 

DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE FL
PNHDL AND SRN AL OVERNIGHT WITHIN WEDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR BEING
ADVECTED NWD AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS THREAT
SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME...HOWEVER AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS.

..MEAD.. 12/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.