[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 220056
SWODY1
SPC AC 220055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CST TUE DEC 21 2004

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE
CRP 60 NNE VCT 30 ESE CLL LFK POE 25 NW LFT 20 ESE 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE CRP 35 E COT
SAT AUS 40 NNE PRX 35 W UNO 10 NW CGI PAH TUP 15 SW PNS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST INTO SWRN LA...

...MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST INTO SWRN LA...
EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINNING TO TURN MORE EWD ACROSS SRN AZ/NRN SONORA MEX. IN THE
LOW-LEVELS...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED COLD FRONT FROM THE LOWER OH
VALLEY SWWD TO LOW PRESSURE OVER NERN TX AND THEN SWWD INTO THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AIR MASS S OF THIS BOUNDARY ALONG THE
MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST HAS DESTABILIZED TO SOME DEGREE /PER 00Z CRP
SOUNDING/...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT SOME CAPPING STILL EXISTS.
CURRENT OBJECTIVE FIELDS AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT 
STRONGEST INSTABILITY REMAINS CONFINED TO ALONG AND S OF W-E
CONVECTIVE LINE FROM APPROXIMATELY 60 SE PSX TO 100 S 7R4.

PRIND...MAJORITY OF STRONGEST SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO STRONGER INSTABILITY
OFFSHORE. FARTHER N...ADDITIONAL TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG COLD FRONT FROM NEAR PRX TO TYR. THOUGH
00Z FWD/SHV SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY...LOCALLY
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF FRONT SUGGEST THAT AIR MASS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE IN IMMEDIATE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS. EXPECT
TSTM DEVELOPMENT TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALONG COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING AZ SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD REGION.
MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS
WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY. POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
WILL EXIST WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP IN FREE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLY STRONG /I.E. 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2/.

..MEAD.. 12/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.