[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 121300
SWODY1
SPC AC 121258

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST SUN DEC 12 2004

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CLE 35 N CLE 50
WNW ERI 40 NNE ERI 10 SSW BUF 15 N JHW ERI 30 NE CLE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N BUF 45 NNW BUF
55 N BUF 50 N ROC 50 WSW ART 25 NE ROC 30 NE BUF 25 N BUF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG /100+ KT/ MID LEVEL SPEED MAX NOW OVER ERN SD/SRN MN EXPECTED
TO ELONGATE AND SETTLE SE INTO THE OH/MID MS VLYS THIS PERIOD AS
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW DEEPENS AND BROADENS OVER THE UPR GRT LKS.  AT
LWR LEVELS...DEEP SURFACE LOW NOW NEAR THUNDER BAY SHOULD TRACK ESE
TO NEAR TORONTO BY 12Z MONDAY.

...LWR GRT LKS...
IN THE WAKE OF ONTARIO SURFACE LOW...FAIRLY DEEP/COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE LWR GRT LKS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. 
UNDIRECTIONAL WSWLY BOUNDARY LAYER (SURFACE TO 700 MB) FLOW WILL BE
PARALLEL TO THE LONG AXES OF LKS ERIE AND ONTARIO.  THIS WILL
MAXIMIZE OVER-WATER FETCH AND ENCOURAGE REGENERATIVE UPDRAFT
DEVELOPMENT/CUMULUS PLUMES.  COUPLED WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
AROUND MINUS 20 C AND LAKE TEMPERATURES NEAR +10 C...UPDRAFTS MAY
BECOME DEEP AND VIGOROUS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CHARGE SEPARATION. 
THUS...AN INCREASING POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SCATTERED LIGHTNING
STRIKES AFTER 06Z.

..CORFIDI.. 12/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.