[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 120500
SWODY1
SPC AC 120458

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 PM CST SAT DEC 11 2004

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z.

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...
INTENSE...MID/UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
PERIOD FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
ATTENDANT CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ERN
HALF OF THE NATION. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
UPPER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD INTO SERN ONTARIO BY
TONIGHT.

ONLY POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD
APPEARS TO BE IN WAKE OF SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HERE...
WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S INTO THE 40S IN CONJUNCTION WITH
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AT 850 MB WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT DEPTHS WILL REMAIN TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT
CHARGE SEPARATION AND INHERENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.

..MEAD.. 12/12/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.