[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 031257
SWODY1
SPC AC 031255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 AM CST FRI DEC 03 2004

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W BRO 45 S ALI 10
N ALI 25 SSW VCT 45 SW GLS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MIDDLE AND LOWER TX COAST...
12Z CRP/BRO SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCAPE OF 200-300 J/KG BASED NEAR 750
MB...WHICH IS MORE UNSTABLE THAN SHOWN IN POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM PREVIOUS MODEL FORECASTS. THIS INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY GIVEN WEAK MID LEVEL ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH WAA/FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY.  

...WRN NY...
A FEW CLOUD-TO-GROUND STRIKES WERE NOTED EARLIER THIS MORNING S OF
BUF ALONG THE ERIE LAKE SHORE. THIS CONVECTION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM THE LOWER
LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND...WHERE WEAK BUOYANCY BELOW 500 MB WAS
AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL FLOW DOWN THE LONG AXIS OF THE RELATIVELY WARM
LAKE.  HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DIMINISHED AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BELT OF ASCENT
SPREADS E OF LAKE ERIE...AND LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES VEER FROM WSWLY
TO WNWLY.

..THOMPSON.. 12/03/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.