[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 011258
SWODY1
SPC AC 011257

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 AM CST WED DEC 01 2004

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HSE 25 S DOV 15 ENE
CXY 25 WSW PSB 15 ENE ERI ...CONT... 30 ENE EFK 10 SW EPM.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
OH VLY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE ENE ACROSS THE NRN
APPALACHIANS/NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN
DOWNSTREAM AXIS OF CONFLUENCE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW NOW NEAR YYZ WILL NEVERTHELESS LIKELY
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS PATTERN FAVORS FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE ST LAWRENCE VLY.  COLD FRONT TRAILING
S FROM THE LOW WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY E/NE ACROSS THE NERN AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES LATER TODAY.  

...PA/NJ/NY INTO NEW ENG...
A NARROW BAND OF STRONG FORCED ASCENT...PARTIALLY EVIDENCED BY
WELL-DEFINED PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET...WILL ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT
CROSSING PA/NJ/NY AND NEW ENG. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH WRN NEW ENG
BY 17Z...AND MOVE OFF THE MA CST BY 20Z.  SOMEWHAT SLOWER EWD
PROGRESS APPEARS LIKELY IN ME.

GIVEN PRESENCE OF STRONG FRONTAL CIRCULATION...BAND OF INTENSE /60+
KT/ LOW TO MID LEVEL WSW FLOW ACCOMPANYING EJECTING SHORTWAVE MAY
OCCASIONALLY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE NEAR THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.  BUT DESPITE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR SUSTAINED UPRIGHT CONVECTION APPEARS MINIMAL GIVEN
OBSERVED DEGREE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL INSTABILITY /PER COOL AND MOIST
ADIABATIC SOUNDINGS AT BUF...PIT AND IAD/.  THUS...ANY
CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. 

FARTHER S...DEPTH AND INTENSITY OF FRONTAL UPLIFT WILL BE MUCH
WEAKER ACROSS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND ERN NC.  THUS...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY...DESPITE EXPECTED
PRESENCE OF AT LEAST A MODEST DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AT
TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

..CORFIDI.. 12/01/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.