[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 180532
SWODY1
SPC AC 180529

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CDT WED AUG 18 2004

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W
CLE 25 E MIE CMI 35 NNW COU STJ 25 SSE OMA 20 SSE MSP 15 NW IWD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
ECG 45 W RIC 20 SE CXY 10 NNW ABE 10 SSW JFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW PFN 30 SW MCN
45 S AHN 25 WSW AND 50 WSW AVL 20 SSW TYS 45 ENE HSV 15 WSW MSL 40
NNE UOX 40 SW DYR 35 SW PAH 30 NNE PAH 20 ESE MVN 10 NE SLO STL 35
WNW TBN 20 WSW JLN 15 S TUL 15 ENE DUA 30 ENE CLL 30 SSW BPT
...CONT... 70 S GBN 25 NNW GBN 60 SE EED 40 NW IGM 25 ESE DRA 30 SSW
BIH 55 NE MER 15 SSW RNO 80 SE 4LW 45 SSE BNO 55 NNE BNO 45 ESE YKM
30 NNE SEA 20 NE BLI ...CONT... 30 N CTB 45 W LWT 30 SE SHR 35 NNW
CDR 45 NNW VTN 25 W MHE 45 N AXN 30 NE RRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA
SWWD INTO IA....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UNUSUALLY INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING 70-80 KT MID
LEVEL JET MAX WILL DIG SEWD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AREA. A STRONG POLAR FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NRN LOWER MI SWWD INTO KS/SERN CO BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL EXTEND
FROM THE GREAT BASIN SEWD INTO WRN TX...WITH RIDGES LOCATED ACROSS
THE SERN STATES AND CA.

...IA NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA...
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA...MODELS SHOW 24 HOUR
HEIGHT FALLS FROM 120 TO 200 M.  MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OF 70 TO 80
KT...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SRN SASKATCHEWAN IS FORECAST TO BE
ROTATING NEWD ACROSS WI INTO SRN ONTARIO BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE UPPER TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND 
STRENGTHEN THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. STRONG FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A LINE OF STORMS TO SWEEP RAPIDLY EWD
THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.  CONVECTION...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
NWRN MN...SHOULD MOVE INTO WI DURING THE MORNING AND INTO NWRN LOWER
MI BY LATE AFTERNOON. HODOGRAPHS SHOW STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 40-60 KT...FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES...THE STRONG
DYNAMICS...70-80 KT WIND MAX AND STRONG LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MAY
SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES. HOWEVER...
THE CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE A FAST MOVING LINE...SO THE GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES AREA.

FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS IA...EWD INTO NWRN OH...STORMS CURRENTLY IN NRN
NEB/SRN SD ARE FORECAST TO BE SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FORCING WILL BE WEAKER THAN AREAS
TO THE NORTH...THE AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. WITH DIURNAL HEATING... THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN 19-03Z.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SWD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PROMOTING STRONG HEATING. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...SO THE
CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE WEAK. DESPITE THE WEAK DYNAMICAL
LIFTING...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK
SHEAR PRECLUDES MORE THAN 5% PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

...MID ATLANTIC STATES...
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN GREAT LAKES AREA WILL APPROACH THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWER 3 KM
WILL SUPPORT STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

...FL NWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...
NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY
SUPPORT A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
4-5C/KM LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 500-700 MB AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..IMY.. 08/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.